Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alverca. Alverca had 6.8 days of rest, AVS 7 and had to travel.
Rest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Alverca58%
Draw25%
AVS17%
Alverca59%
Draw23%
AVS18%
Alverca58%
Draw25%
AVS17%
Alverca51%
Draw28%
AVS21%
Alverca60%
Draw24%
AVS17%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 15
Team strength
Alverca
AVS
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
38
AttackIn forecast
17
42
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaAVS
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.38
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
75%
Scored inContext
46%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
8.67
ShotsContext
9.88
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.74
39%
On target shareContext
27%
5.73
Shots in the boxContext
5.65
65%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.75
Shots allowedContext
14.46
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.54
4.17
BlocksContext
3.43
3.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
67%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
352
PassesContext
306
282
Accurate passesContext
227
80%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.57
12.58
FoulsContext
13.29
13.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.60
ShotsContext
10.60
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.56
38%
On target shareContext
22%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
67%
Box shareContext
50%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.40
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.20
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
64%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
344
PassesContext
280
275
Accurate passesContext
194
80%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.62
12.20
FoulsContext
11.30
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km580 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 580 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
12Isaac James
18Lincoln
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
9M. Milovanović
20Figueiredo
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
24Kiki
3Paulo Vitor
33Aderllan Santos
97Mateus Pivô
21G. Neiva
27Ángel Algobia
70Roni
23Gustavo Mendonça
20Diego Duarte
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-4
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.33
AVS · Away
0.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-9
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 3.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Tondela | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estrela | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Estoril | L 1–4 A | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 0–6 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game | 9 of 69 · 0.39 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Alverca wins0 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025AVS1–3Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.13 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 42% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 54% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Alverca | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 5.81 | |
| Match total | 8.65 | 9.81 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 4.75 | 5.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 13/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Alverca | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 10.23 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.30 | 5.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 4.83
Red cards0.93league 0.27
Cards 5+73%league 59%
Fouls26.6league 27.0
Penalties0.67league 0.45
Home wins27%league 42%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D21 Dec 25H · Nacional2–22
- L17 May 25H · Moreirense0–36
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca24 games · scored 24 · conceded 39
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
7
76-90
AVS24 games · scored 18 · conceded 57
1
9
0-15
1
8
16-30
4
10
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
11
61-75
6
7
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
