Alverca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Alverca46.0%fair odds 2.17
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.62
Nacional26.3%fair odds 3.80
Expected goals1.46 – 1.04total 2.50
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Alverca ↓ · Nacional → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Alverca goals, columns Nacional goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 1–011.3%8.82
- 2–19.1%11.01
- 0–08.9%11.23
- 2–08.7%11.45
- 0–17.9%12.64
- 1–26.5%15.41
- 2–24.7%21.17
- 0–24.5%22.42
- 3–14.4%22.69
Winning margin
8.9%
Alverca by 3+
fair 11.21
14.1%
Alverca by 2
fair 7.11
23.0%
Alverca by 1
fair 4.34
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.62
16.3%
Nacional by 1
fair 6.15
7.2%
Nacional by 2
fair 13.92
2.9%
Nacional by 3+
fair 34.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Alverca goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Nacional goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 46.0% | 46.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Nacional win | 26.3% | 26.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.5% | 50.9% | -5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.2% | 54.5% | -4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Alverca | 1.46 | 1.57 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Nacional | 1.04 | 1.14 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Alverca win46.0%2.17
- Draw27.6%3.62
- Nacional win26.3%3.80
- Double chance Alverca or draw73.7%1.36
- Double chance Alverca or Nacional72.4%1.38
- Double chance Nacional or draw54.0%1.85
- Draw no bet Alverca63.6%1.57
- Draw no bet Nacional36.4%2.75
Goals
- Over 0.591.1%1.10
- Over 1.571.8%1.39
- Over 2.545.5%2.20
- Over 3.524.1%4.14
- Over 4.510.8%9.24
- Under 1.528.2%3.55
- Under 2.554.5%1.84
- Under 3.575.9%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes50.2%1.99
- No49.8%2.01
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.70
- Alverca win and yes19.6%5.11
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- Nacional win and yes11.9%8.39
Team goals
- Alverca over 0.576.7%1.30
- Alverca over 1.542.7%2.34
- Alverca over 2.518.0%5.55
- Nacional over 0.564.7%1.55
- Nacional over 1.527.9%3.58
- Nacional over 2.58.8%11.39
- Alverca clean sheet35.3%2.83
- Nacional clean sheet23.3%4.29
- Alverca win to nil26.4%3.78
- Nacional win to nil14.4%6.93
Handicap
- Alverca −1.523.0%4.35
- Alverca −2.58.9%11.21
- Nacional +1.577.0%1.30
- Nacional +2.591.1%1.10
- Nacional −1.510.1%9.92
- Alverca +1.589.9%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored113
Favourite won56.6%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right62.8%
BTTS called right56.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 37.6% | 29.4% |
| 40–50% | 42 | 44.8% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 54.0% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 66.2% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 75.1% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 84 of 113 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5569 | 0.5347 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.8% | 45.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.1% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 84 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 113 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.