Alverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Alverca had 8.1 days of rest, Nacional 8 and had to travel 992 km.
Away travel992 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Alverca46%
Draw28%
Nacional26%
Alverca47%
Draw26%
Nacional27%
Alverca46%
Draw28%
Nacional26%
Alverca39%
Draw29%
Nacional33%
Alverca47%
Draw26%
Nacional27%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alverca do Ribatejo)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 60
Team strength
Alverca
Nacional
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
38
AttackIn forecast
15
42
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AlvercaNacional
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.92
ShotsContext
10.58
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
39%
On target shareContext
35%
5.82
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
64%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.83
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.58
BlocksContext
4.50
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
67%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
360
PassesContext
277
291
Accurate passesContext
201
81%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.33
FoulsContext
14.25
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.10
ShotsContext
10.00
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
41%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
51%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.80
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.60
BlocksContext
4.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
72%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
368
PassesContext
282
299
Accurate passesContext
204
81%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.00
FoulsContext
13.30
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Alverca
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel992 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Alverca |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 992 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
3Julián Jose Martinez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
11Cedric Nuozzi
91Sandro Lima
18Lincoln
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
15C. Labidi
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
17M. Nourani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Alverca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Alverca · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.67
Nacional · Away
1.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Alverca | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 A | L 1–4 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 24 · 0.63 per game | 11 of 24 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Alverca | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.42 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Alverca | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Alverca | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 6.08 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 10.58 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 3.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.08 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 5.91 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 92% 11/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 92% 11/12 | |
| Alverca | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 9.70 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 5.60 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.83league 5.21
Red cards0.38league 0.28
Cards 5+72%league 65%
Fouls28.6league 27.6
Penalties0.40league 0.48
Home wins40%league 35%
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
Nacional2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W1 Mar 25H · Famalicao2–13
- L19 Dec 24H · Benfica0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Alverca12 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
Nacional12 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
4
0-15
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
