Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 21). Arouca had 7.1 days of rest, Alverca 7.1 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Arouca37%
Draw28%
Alverca34%
Arouca38%
Draw27%
Alverca35%
Arouca37%
Draw28%
Alverca34%
Arouca31%
Draw28%
Alverca41%
Arouca38%
Draw27%
Alverca35%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 8.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Arouca
Alverca
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
28
AttackIn forecast
38
37
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaAlverca
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
2.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
0.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
54%
Scored inContext
77%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
8.31
ShotsContext
9.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
31%
On target shareContext
39%
5.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
57%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.85
Shots allowedContext
12.85
5.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
4.00
BlocksContext
3.92
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
52%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
366
PassesContext
364
299
Accurate passesContext
295
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.49
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.23
FoulsContext
13.08
11.85
Fouls sufferedContext
14.31
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.23
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
2.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.00
ShotsContext
9.60
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
29%
On target shareContext
41%
4.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
56%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.13
14.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.11
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
56%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
347
PassesContext
385
278
Accurate passesContext
317
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.49
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.20
FoulsContext
12.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km513 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel236 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 513 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
58N. Mantl(G)
44A. Dante
5B. Popović
66Omar Fayed
28Tiago Esgaio
89Pedro Santos
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
19A. Trezza
11Miguel Puche
23D. Nandin
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
3Julián Jose Martinez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
21S. Abdulai
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
18Lincoln
91Sandro Lima
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
0.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.43
Alverca · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 H | L 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Benfica | L 0–5 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rio Ave | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 0–2 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 8 of 30 · 0.80 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.85 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 3.92 | 2.62 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 54% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 62% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 23% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Arouca | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.40 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.58 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.08 | 7.66 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.08 | 2.54 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.92 | |
| Match total | 5.16 | 5.46 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 8/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Arouca | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 7.72 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.40 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.83league 5.15
Red cards0.17league 0.29
Cards 5+100%league 62%
Fouls30.2league 27.5
Penalties0.33league 0.45
Home wins17%league 35%
AroucaNo previous matches with this referee.
Alverca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 25A · AVS3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca12 games · scored 14 · conceded 32
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
Alverca13 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
