Arouca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Arouca16.3%fair odds 6.13
Draw22.6%fair odds 4.43
Benfica61.1%fair odds 1.64
Expected goals0.90 – 1.94total 2.84
Likeliest score0–211.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Arouca ↓ · Benfica → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Arouca goals, columns Benfica goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.0%9.10
- 0–110.8%9.25
- 1–110.8%9.30
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 0–37.1%14.08
- 0–06.4%15.63
- 1–36.4%15.65
- 1–04.7%21.15
- 2–14.6%21.76
- 2–24.5%22.46
Winning margin
1.4%
Arouca by 3+
fair 74.05
4.1%
Arouca by 2
fair 24.46
10.9%
Arouca by 1
fair 9.20
22.6%
Draw
fair 4.43
24.0%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.16
19.0%
Benfica by 2
fair 5.28
18.1%
Benfica by 3+
fair 5.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Arouca goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Benfica goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca win | 16.3% | 16.4% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 22.6% | 22.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Benfica win | 61.1% | 61.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 56.0% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 52.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Arouca | 0.90 | 0.93 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Benfica | 1.94 | 1.99 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Arouca win16.3%6.13
- Draw22.6%4.43
- Benfica win61.1%1.64
- Double chance Arouca or draw38.9%2.57
- Double chance Arouca or Benfica77.4%1.29
- Double chance Benfica or draw83.7%1.19
- Draw no bet Arouca21.1%4.75
- Draw no bet Benfica78.9%1.27
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.1%1.28
- Over 2.553.9%1.85
- Over 3.531.6%3.16
- Over 4.515.8%6.32
- Under 1.521.9%4.56
- Under 2.546.1%2.17
- Under 3.568.4%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.540.6%2.46
- Arouca win and yes8.3%12.04
- Draw and yes16.2%6.18
- Benfica win and yes26.9%3.72
Team goals
- Arouca over 0.559.3%1.69
- Arouca over 1.522.7%4.40
- Arouca over 2.56.3%15.91
- Benfica over 0.585.6%1.17
- Benfica over 1.557.7%1.73
- Benfica over 2.530.6%3.26
- Arouca clean sheet14.4%6.94
- Benfica clean sheet40.7%2.46
- Arouca win to nil8.0%12.49
- Benfica win to nil34.3%2.92
Handicap
- Arouca −1.55.4%18.39
- Arouca −2.51.4%74.05
- Benfica +1.594.6%1.06
- Benfica +2.598.6%1.01
- Benfica −1.537.1%2.70
- Arouca +1.562.9%1.59
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored227
Favourite won58.6%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.538
Over 2.5 called right57.7%
BTTS called right55.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 43 | 37.7% | 44.2% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.6% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 54.6% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 75.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 227 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5161 | 0.5035 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Favourite won | 63.3% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 227 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.