Arouca vs Benfica – 14 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 14 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 11th · 26 pts · 25 played WLWLL

1–2Full time

Benfica 3rd · 59 pts · 25 played WWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. Arouca had 8 days of rest, Benfica 6.1 and had to travel 257 km.

Away travel257 kmRest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Arouca16%

Draw23%

Benfica61%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.94

Arouca14%

Draw21%

Benfica65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.07

Arouca16%

Draw23%

Benfica61%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.94

Arouca12%

Draw20%

Benfica68%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.17

Arouca16%

Draw22%

Benfica62%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.99

Over 2.5 54% Both score 51% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

RefereeJosé Bessa

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 29

Team strength

Arouca

Benfica

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

28 AttackIn forecast 81

37 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Benfica

1.28 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.12

2.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.64

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.83

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

68% Scored inContext 92%

20% Clean sheetsContext 48%

9.80 ShotsContext 16.28

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.96

34% On target shareContext 37%

5.96 Shots in the boxContext 10.48

58% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.20 Shots allowedContext 8.16

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.05 BlocksContext 2.32

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.45

59% Save rateContext 79%

50% PossessionIn forecast 59%

399 PassesContext 483

330 Accurate passesContext 411

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.62 Team ratingContext 7.02

13.44 FoulsContext 10.72

11.64 Fouls sufferedContext 15.44

2.52 Yellow cardsContext 2.08

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.00 ShotsContext 17.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

41% On target shareContext 38%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

60% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 12%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.67

12.30 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

4.33 BlocksContext 2.90

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

66% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

422 PassesContext 434

353 Accurate passesContext 359

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.20 FoulsContext 8.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km116 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel257 km631 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Mar	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	257 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	116 km	631 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

25B. Kuipers 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 6Diogo Monteiro

21T. Fukui 22E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 4António Silva 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

20Richard Ríos 18L. Barreiro

21A. Schjelderup 27Rafa 11D. Lukébakio

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 1.25points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-5
Scored: 1.42
Conceded: 1.92

Benfica · Away 2.50points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 9-3-0
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Benfica
Famalicao	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
FC Porto	L 1–3 AL 0–4 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Nacional	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 A
Casa Pia	L 2–3 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 H
Guimaraes	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
Rio Ave	W 3–0 AD 3–3 H	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 HL 0–6 A	D 1–1 H
AVS	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Tondela	L 1–3 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Santa Clara	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Alverca	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Estrela	L 1–3 A	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A
SC Braga	L 0–4 H	D 2–2 A
Estoril	L 3–4 A	W 3–1 H
Moreirense	L 0–2 H	W 4–0 A
Points	26 of 72 · 1.08 per game	56 of 72 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Arouca wins1 draws6 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.29 – 3.43 Over 2.586% Both scored14% Clean sheets0% · 86%

25 Oct 2025Benfica5–0Arouca
13 Apr 2025Benfica2–2Arouca
1 Dec 2024Arouca0–2Benfica
12 May 2024Benfica5–0Arouca
6 Jan 2024Arouca0–3Benfica
31 Jan 2023Arouca0–3Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.28	2.12
Conceded per game	2.12	0.64
Match goals	3.40	2.76	2.84
Over 1.5	84%	84%
Over 2.5	68%	68%	54%
Over 3.5	52%	28%
Both teams scored	52%	52%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	48%
Failed to score	32%	8%
Games	25	25

	Arouca	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	2.20
Conceded per game	1.60	0.80
Match goals	3.30	3.00	2.84
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	6.58
Corners conceded	4.79	2.38
Match total	8.46	8.96	9.16
Over 8.5	42% 10/24	54% 13/24
Over 9.5	38% 9/24	42% 10/24
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	25% 6/24
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.24
Opponent cards	2.52	2.96
Match total	5.32	5.20	5.16
Over 3.5	76% 19/25	72% 18/25
Over 4.5	60% 15/25	64% 16/25

	Arouca	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	7.10
Corners conceded	4.10	2.60
Match total	7.50	9.70	9.16
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.40
Opponent cards	2.90	3.60
Match total	5.60	6.00	5.16
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Bessa 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.83

Red cards0.28league 0.26

Cards 5+55%league 59%

Fouls25.4league 27.0

Penalties0.21league 0.44

Home wins41%league 41%

Arouca2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D28 Dec 25H · GIL Vicente2–25
L18 Feb 24A · Casa Pia0–12

Benfica2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W31 Aug 25A · Alverca2–16
W22 Feb 25H · Boavista3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.