Arouca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Arouca46.4%fair odds 2.15
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.68
Casa Pia26.4%fair odds 3.79
Expected goals1.50 – 1.07total 2.56
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Casa Pia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Arouca ↓ · Casa Pia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Arouca goals, columns Casa Pia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 1–010.9%9.19
- 2–19.2%10.87
- 2–08.6%11.59
- 0–08.4%11.96
- 0–17.6%13.20
- 1–26.6%15.24
- 2–24.9%20.37
- 3–14.6%21.80
- 0–24.4%22.79
Winning margin
9.3%
Arouca by 3+
fair 10.73
14.2%
Arouca by 2
fair 7.03
22.9%
Arouca by 1
fair 4.37
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.68
16.1%
Casa Pia by 1
fair 6.20
7.2%
Casa Pia by 2
fair 13.81
3.0%
Casa Pia by 3+
fair 33.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Arouca goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
7%4+
Casa Pia goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca win | 46.4% | 46.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 26.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Casa Pia win | 26.4% | 26.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 50.9% | -3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.5% | 54.5% | -2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Arouca | 1.50 | 1.58 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Casa Pia | 1.07 | 1.14 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Arouca win46.4%2.15
- Draw27.2%3.68
- Casa Pia win26.4%3.79
- Double chance Arouca or draw73.6%1.36
- Double chance Arouca or Casa Pia72.8%1.37
- Double chance Casa Pia or draw53.6%1.87
- Draw no bet Arouca63.8%1.57
- Draw no bet Casa Pia36.2%2.76
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.2%1.37
- Over 2.547.2%2.12
- Over 3.525.6%3.91
- Over 4.511.7%8.52
- Under 1.526.8%3.73
- Under 2.552.8%1.89
- Under 3.574.4%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.5%1.94
- No48.5%2.06
- Yes and over 2.538.6%2.59
- Arouca win and yes20.4%4.90
- Draw and yes18.8%5.31
- Casa Pia win and yes12.3%8.11
Team goals
- Arouca over 0.577.6%1.29
- Arouca over 1.544.1%2.27
- Arouca over 2.519.0%5.26
- Casa Pia over 0.565.6%1.52
- Casa Pia over 1.528.9%3.46
- Casa Pia over 2.59.3%10.75
- Arouca clean sheet34.4%2.91
- Casa Pia clean sheet22.4%4.46
- Arouca win to nil26.0%3.84
- Casa Pia win to nil14.0%7.12
Handicap
- Arouca −1.523.6%4.25
- Arouca −2.59.3%10.73
- Casa Pia +1.576.4%1.31
- Casa Pia +2.590.7%1.10
- Casa Pia −1.510.2%9.77
- Arouca +1.589.8%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored42
Favourite won59.5%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.544
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right52.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 37.2% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 45.8% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 53.9% | 58.3% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 66.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.3% | 60.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 13 of 42 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5140 | 0.4961 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.7% | 46.8% |
| Favourite won | 69.2% | 69.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 13 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 42 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.