Arouca vs Casa Pia – 14 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 14 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 11th · 5 pts · 4 played WLDD

0–2Full time

Casa Pia 16th · 3 pts · 4 played LWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arouca were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Arouca had 15 days of rest, Casa Pia 15.1 and had to travel.

Rest days15 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Arouca46%

Draw27%

Casa Pia26%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.07

Arouca47%

Draw26%

Casa Pia27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Arouca46%

Draw27%

Casa Pia26%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.07

Arouca39%

Draw28%

Casa Pia33%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.20

Arouca47%

Draw26%

Casa Pia27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho

Cards per match 7.0
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 30

Team strength

Arouca

Casa Pia

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

28 AttackIn forecast 13

37 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Casa Pia

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.59 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.02

+1.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

75% Scored inContext 25%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

9.25 ShotsContext 8.25

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

35% On target shareContext 30%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.00

60% Box shareContext 46%

19% ConversionContext 6%

— OffsidesContext —

15.25 Shots allowedContext 16.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.00 BlocksContext 4.50

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

46% Save rateContext 60%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

413 PassesContext 327

349 Accurate passesContext 247

85% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.64

12.50 FoulsContext 13.50

13.25 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

+0.55 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.50 ShotsContext 6.60

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

37% On target shareContext 36%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 3.44

61% Box shareContext 52%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.40

13.80 Shots allowedContext 14.70

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.00 BlocksContext 4.10

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

57% Save rateContext 62%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

407 PassesContext 335

334 Accurate passesContext 257

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.60 FoulsContext 13.50

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Casa Pia

Rest15.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug	15.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1João Valido(G)

44A. Dante 3José Fontán 4M. Rocha 28Tiago Esgaio

21T. Fukui 89Pedro Santos

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

23D. Nandin

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 6José Fonte 18André Geraldes

12F. Benaissa-Yahia 42S. Pérez 74Renato Nhaga 72Gaizka Larrazabal

21Tiago Morais 90Cassiano 29J. Livolant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

Casa Pia · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Arouca	Casa Pia
Sporting CP	L 0–6 A	L 0–2 H
AVS	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Arouca wins2 draws3 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.83 Over 2.517% Both scored17% Clean sheets50% · 67%

4 May 2025Arouca0–0Casa Pia
20 Dec 2024Casa Pia3–1Arouca
18 Feb 2024Casa Pia1–0Arouca
17 Sep 2023Arouca0–1Casa Pia
25 Feb 2023Arouca2–0Casa Pia
4 Sep 2022Casa Pia0–0Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	0.50
Conceded per game	2.75	2.00
Match goals	4.50	2.50	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	25%	47%
Over 3.5	75%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	75%
Games	4	4

	Arouca	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	0.50
Conceded per game	2.75	2.00
Match goals	4.50	2.50	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	25%	47%
Over 3.5	75%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	75%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	2.75	2.00
Corners conceded	3.50	6.00
Match total	6.25	8.00	8.97
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	0% 0/4	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	0% 0/3
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.75
Opponent cards	1.75	2.75
Match total	4.25	5.50	5.05
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4

	Arouca	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.11	3.00
Corners conceded	4.89	5.75
Match total	8.00	8.75	8.97
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.90
Opponent cards	2.30	2.60
Match total	5.20	5.50	5.05
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.50league 4.95

Red cards0.50league 0.19

Cards 5+80%league 60%

Fouls31.2league 27.4

Penalties0.27league 0.31

Home wins43%league 36%

Arouca3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.7 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L26 Apr 25A · Santa Clara0–26
L3 Nov 24H · SC Braga1–23
L28 Apr 23A · Rio Ave0–13

Casa Pia2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L24 Aug 24H · Santa Clara0–24
W8 Jan 24A · Moreirense4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.