Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nacional. Arouca had 7 days of rest, Nacional 6 and had to travel 1,198 km.
Away travel1,198 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Arouca43%
Draw28%
Nacional29%
Arouca45%
Draw27%
Nacional28%
Arouca43%
Draw28%
Nacional29%
Arouca36%
Draw29%
Nacional35%
Arouca43%
Draw27%
Nacional29%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Arouca
Nacional
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
28
AttackIn forecast
15
37
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaNacional
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
2.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
68%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
9.91
ShotsContext
11.77
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
33%
On target shareContext
33%
5.95
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
56%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.19
12.91
Shots allowedContext
14.23
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.45
3.85
BlocksContext
4.14
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
55%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
400
PassesContext
313
330
Accurate passesContext
238
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.41
FoulsContext
14.50
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.36
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.68
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
13.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
31%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
57%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.11
BlocksContext
3.70
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
428
PassesContext
356
356
Accurate passesContext
282
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.30
FoulsContext
14.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,198 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 373 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
15C. Labidi
6Matheus Dias
8Miguel Baeza
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
27Gabriel Veron
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
1.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 2.09
Nacional · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H |
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Tondela | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Alverca | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estoril | L 3–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Benfica | L 0–5 A | L 1–2 H |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–4 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game | 21 of 63 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Arouca wins0 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025Nacional1–2Arouca
- 1 Feb 2025Nacional1–2Arouca
- 25 Aug 2024Arouca1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.23 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.64 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 55% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 59% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 27% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Arouca | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 5.95 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 10.38 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 2.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.68 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.23 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 18/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 14/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Arouca | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.11 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 4.40 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.40league 4.93
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+80%league 59%
Fouls28.6league 27.0
Penalties0.20league 0.44
Home wins40%league 41%
AroucaNo previous matches with this referee.
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca21 games · scored 28 · conceded 44
6
5
0-15
1
7
16-30
6
12
31-45
7
7
46-60
6
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
Nacional22 games · scored 27 · conceded 31
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
10
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
