Arsenal vs Brighton – 27 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Sat, Dec 27 · 15:00 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 2nd · 39 pts · 17 played DWLWW

2–1Full time

Brighton 9th · 24 pts · 17 played WLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 75). Arsenal had 6.8 days of rest, Brighton 7 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Arsenal71%

Draw17%

Brighton11%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.91

Arsenal68%

Draw19%

Brighton12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.81

Arsenal71%

Draw18%

Brighton12%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.89

Arsenal64%

Draw20%

Brighton16%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.02

Arsenal69%

Draw19%

Brighton12%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.83

Over 2.5 66% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 92

Team strength

Arsenal

Brighton

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

86 AttackIn forecast 87

95 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Brighton

1.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.47

0.59 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

0.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

94% Scored inContext 76%

53% Clean sheetsContext 24%

14.47 ShotsContext 13.65

4.94 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.53

34% On target shareContext 33%

10.94 Shots in the boxContext 8.47

75% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.08 OffsidesContext 2.50

7.29 Shots allowedContext 12.12

2.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

3.21 BlocksContext 3.06

2.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

77% Save rateContext 70%

60% PossessionIn forecast 52%

507 PassesContext 458

434 Accurate passesContext 385

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.76 FoulsContext 12.00

10.65 Fouls sufferedContext 10.41

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.41

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

0.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.40 ShotsContext 15.00

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

44% On target shareContext 31%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

75% Box shareContext 62%

15% ConversionContext 10%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.14

7.90 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.89 BlocksContext 3.40

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

76% Save rateContext 73%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

479 PassesContext 506

407 Accurate passesContext 430

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.95

9.78 FoulsContext 11.20

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel72 km691 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec	7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	691 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

49M. Lewis-Skelly 5P. Hincapié 2W. Saliba 41D. Rice

23Mikel Merino 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

19L. Trossard 14V. Gyökeres 7B. Saka

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 42D. Coppola

29M. De Cuyper 13J. Hinshelwood 26Y. Ayari 24F. Kadıoğlu

25D. Gómez 8B. Gruda

10G. Rutter

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.7 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Brighton-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 7-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.38

Brighton · Away 1.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-4
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Brighton
Everton	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Wolves	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	L 3–4 H
Brentford	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Chelsea	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 A
Tottenham	W 4–1 H	D 2–2 H
Sunderland	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Fulham	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
West Ham	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 A
Liverpool	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Leeds	W 5–0 H	W 3–0 H
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	L 2–4 A
Points	36 of 48 · 2.25 per game	24 of 48 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Arsenal wins3 draws2 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 20%

4 Jan 2025Brighton1–1Arsenal
31 Aug 2024Arsenal1–1Brighton
6 Apr 2024Brighton0–3Arsenal
17 Dec 2023Arsenal2–0Brighton
14 May 2023Arsenal0–3Brighton
31 Dec 2022Brighton2–4Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.82	1.47
Conceded per game	0.59	1.35
Match goals	2.41	2.82	3.40
Over 1.5	71%	88%
Over 2.5	41%	53%	66%
Over 3.5	18%	24%
Both teams scored	41%	65%	55%
Clean sheets	53%	24%
Failed to score	6%	24%
Games	17	17

	Arsenal	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.50
Conceded per game	0.70	1.30
Match goals	2.40	2.80	3.40
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	66%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	5.00
Corners conceded	3.19	4.41
Match total	8.94	9.41	9.85
Over 8.5	44% 7/16	59% 10/17
Over 9.5	44% 7/16	59% 10/17
Over 10.5	44% 7/16	53% 9/17
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.41
Opponent cards	1.65	2.06
Match total	2.94	4.47	3.87
Over 3.5	35% 6/17	71% 12/17
Over 4.5	12% 2/17	41% 7/17

	Arsenal	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.50
Corners conceded	2.67	4.70
Match total	6.67	10.20	9.85
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	4.10	3.30	3.87
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.35league 3.72

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+48%league 38%

Fouls22.7league 21.7

Penalties0.22league 0.20

Home wins53%league 48%

Arsenal3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

W4 Oct 25H · West Ham2–00
L2 Nov 24A · Newcastle0–14
W6 Apr 24A · Brighton3–02

Brighton6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L6 Apr 24H · Arsenal0–31
D21 Dec 23A · Crystal Palace1–12
D12 Nov 23H · Sheffield Utd1–14
W24 Sep 23H · Bournemouth3–13
L26 Feb 22H · Aston Villa0–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.