Arsenal vs Fulham – 2 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 35 Sat, May 2 · 17:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 1st · 73 pts · 34 played WWLLW

3–0Full time

Fulham 10th · 48 pts · 34 played DWLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 71). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fulham. Arsenal had 7 days of rest, Fulham 7.2 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Arsenal58%

Draw24%

Fulham18%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.94

Arsenal70%

Draw19%

Fulham11%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.79

Arsenal58%

Draw24%

Fulham18%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.94

Arsenal50%

Draw26%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.06

Arsenal56%

Draw25%

Fulham19%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.88

Over 2.5 53% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 106

Team strength

Arsenal

Fulham

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

86 AttackIn forecast 66

95 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Fulham

1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

0.76 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

91% Scored inContext 74%

47% Clean sheetsContext 24%

14.38 ShotsContext 12.50

4.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.94

33% On target shareContext 30%

10.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.64

74% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.21 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.18 Shots allowedContext 11.82

2.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.82

3.13 BlocksContext 3.56

2.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

74% Save rateContext 70%

56% PossessionIn forecast 51%

466 PassesContext 472

391 Accurate passesContext 395

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.38 FoulsContext 10.85

10.82 Fouls sufferedContext 9.44

1.32 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.54

90% Scored inContext 50%

60% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.60 ShotsContext 14.00

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

31% On target shareContext 26%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

66% Box shareContext 75%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.89

11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.40

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.40 BlocksContext 4.00

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

75% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

436 PassesContext 456

366 Accurate passesContext 379

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.90

9.90 FoulsContext 10.60

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fulham

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 4B. White

49M. Lewis-Skelly 41D. Rice

19L. Trossard 10E. Eze 7B. Saka

14V. Gyökeres

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

20S. Lukić 6H. Reed

19S. Chukwueze 32E. Smith Rowe 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Fulham-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.41points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 13-2-2
Scored: 2.18
Conceded: 0.65

Fulham · Away 0.94points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-9
Scored: 0.94
Conceded: 1.59

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Fulham
Newcastle	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A	L 1–2 A
Manchester City	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 AL 4–5 H
Bournemouth	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	L 1–3 A
Everton	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Brighton	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Tottenham	W 4–1 AW 4–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Wolves	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 H
Brentford	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
Sunderland	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Leeds	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Manchester United	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Liverpool	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Aston Villa	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 3–1 HW 3–2 A
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
West Ham	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Points	70 of 99 · 2.12 per game	48 of 99 · 1.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Arsenal wins3 draws1 Fulham wins

Goals per game1.78 – 0.89 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

18 Oct 2025Fulham0–1Arsenal
1 Apr 2025Arsenal2–1Fulham
8 Dec 2024Fulham1–1Arsenal
31 Dec 2023Fulham2–1Arsenal
26 Aug 2023Arsenal2–2Fulham
12 Mar 2023Fulham0–3Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	1.29
Conceded per game	0.76	1.35
Match goals	2.65	2.65	2.78
Over 1.5	74%	71%
Over 2.5	53%	53%	53%
Over 3.5	26%	26%
Both teams scored	50%	56%	52%
Clean sheets	47%	24%
Failed to score	9%	26%
Games	34	34

	Arsenal	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.00
Conceded per game	0.90	1.10
Match goals	2.70	2.10	2.78
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.71
Corners conceded	3.50	5.76
Match total	9.50	10.47	10.07
Over 8.5	56% 18/32	79% 27/34
Over 9.5	50% 16/32	68% 23/34
Over 10.5	47% 15/32	47% 16/34
Cards
Cards	1.32	2.00
Opponent cards	1.94	1.79
Match total	3.26	3.79	3.92
Over 3.5	47% 16/34	59% 20/34
Over 4.5	21% 7/34	44% 15/34

	Arsenal	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.90
Corners conceded	3.90	6.00
Match total	9.70	10.90	10.07
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.30
Match total	2.90	3.90	3.92
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 106 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.79

Red cards0.09league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 39%

Fouls20.1league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins37%league 43%

Arsenal9 with this referee

Record7-0-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 0

W28 Sep 25A · Newcastle2–11
W23 Aug 25H · Leeds5–00
L3 May 25H · Bournemouth1–20
W15 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–03
W17 Aug 24H · Wolves2–02

Fulham8 with this referee

Record6-0-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

W18 May 25A · Brentford3–24
L8 Apr 23H · West Ham0–11
W16 Sep 22A · Nottingham Forest3–24
L27 Aug 22A · Arsenal1–23
W8 Mar 22A · Swansea5–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.