Arsenal vs Leeds – 23 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 17:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

5–0Full time

Leeds 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 66). Arsenal had 6 days of rest, Leeds 4.9 and had to travel 272 km.

Away travel272 kmRest days6 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Arsenal71%

Draw17%

Leeds11%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.91

Arsenal69%

Draw19%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.81

Arsenal71%

Draw18%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.91

Arsenal64%

Draw20%

Leeds16%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.02

Arsenal69%

Draw19%

Leeds12%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.82

Over 2.5 66% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 86

Team strength

Arsenal

Leeds

92 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 73

86 AttackIn forecast 69

95 DefenceIn forecast 77

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Leeds

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 2.21

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.75

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.60 ShotsContext 15.50

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

37% On target shareContext 37%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.20

75% Box shareContext 72%

11% ConversionContext 14%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.22

12.40 Shots allowedContext 7.10

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.86

4.00 BlocksContext 2.71

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.88

75% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 63%

448 PassesContext 558

386 Accurate passesContext 480

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.08 Team ratingContext 7.17

10.40 FoulsContext 8.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Leeds

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel272 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Aug	4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

20C. Madueke 14V. Gyökeres 7B. Saka

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Leeds Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Lucas Perri(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 2J. Bogle

18A. Stach 44I. Gruev 22A. Tanaka

29D. Gnonto 10J. Piroe 7D. James

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Leeds Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Leeds-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home No home games yet this season.

Leeds · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Arsenal wins1 draws0 Leeds wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.83 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

1 Apr 2023Arsenal4–1Leeds
16 Oct 2022Leeds0–1Arsenal
8 May 2022Arsenal2–1Leeds
18 Dec 2021Leeds1–4Arsenal
14 Feb 2021Arsenal4–2Leeds
22 Nov 2020Leeds0–0Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	3.39
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Arsenal	Leeds	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	3.39
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	9.00	10.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	0.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	2.00	3.20
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Arsenal	Leeds	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	6.38
Corners conceded	4.44	2.50
Match total	8.88	8.88	10.00
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	3.60	3.50	3.20
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.07

Red cards0.10league 0.13

Cards 5+37%league 33%

Fouls20.1league 21.2

Penalties0.20league 0.20

Home wins41%league 53%

Arsenal7 with this referee

Record5-0-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

L3 May 25H · Bournemouth1–20
W15 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–03
W17 Aug 24H · Wolves2–02
W17 Feb 24A · Burnley5–01
L9 Dec 23A · Aston Villa0–12

Leeds1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D9 Feb 22A · Aston Villa3–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.