Arsenal vs Lille – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 14th · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–0Full time

Lille 22nd · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 57). Absences weigh more on Arsenal. Arsenal were without Martín Zubimendi and W. Saliba. Arsenal had 3.3 days of rest, Lille 3.2 and had to travel 251 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel251 kmRest days3.3 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Arsenal79%

Draw14%

Lille7%

Expected goals 2.68 – 0.70

Arsenal79%

Draw14%

Lille7%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.68

Arsenal80%

Draw13%

Lille7%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.68

Arsenal73%

Draw17%

Lille10%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.79

Arsenal78%

Draw14%

Lille8%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.69

Over 2.5 66% Both score 47% Likeliest score 2–0

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

17°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 59%

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 139

Team strength

Arsenal

Lille

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

86 AttackIn forecast 42

95 DefenceIn forecast 60

93 Form indexContext 53

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack+18%

Defense risk−24%

Lille

Attack−51%

Defense risk+81%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Arsenal

Lille

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

90% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.00 ShotsContext 11.30

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 44%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

71% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 12%

3.56 OffsidesContext 2.78

10.30 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

2.50 BlocksContext 3.57

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

72% Save rateContext 73%

56% PossessionIn forecast 52%

494 PassesContext 460

426 Accurate passesContext 396

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.00 FoulsContext 10.80

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal WWWLW

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 93 · 12 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts
W9 SepA · Napoli1–02.1 xPts
W6 SepH · Chelsea2–12.2 xPts

Lille WLWLW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel251 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 53 · 9 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts
L8 SepH · Real Betis2–31.6 xPts
W3 SepA · Toulouse1–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct	3.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	251 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

49M. Lewis-Skelly 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 12J. Timber

39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice

10E. Eze 23Mikel Merino 20C. Madueke

14V. Gyökeres

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 4Alexsandro Ribeiro 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi

21B. André 6N. Bentaleb

10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau 7D. Bakwa

18A. Ueda

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −27.7% · Defence line −21.7% of weighted minutes

MID Martín Zubimendi Starter 6.93 Att −10.2% Def −5.8%
DEF W. Saliba Starter 6.92 Def −11.2%
ATT C. Tzolis Starter 6.86 Att −17.5%
DEF P. Hincapié Rotation 6.91 Def −4.6%

Lille Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −2.9% · Defence line −5.9% of weighted minutes

DEF Tiago Santos Rotation 6.87 Def −4.7%
MID E. Mbappé Rotation 6.74 Att −1.3% Def −1.2%
ATT H. Igamane Rotation 7.15 Att −1.6%

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-1.0 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Lille+0.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home No home games yet this season.

Lille · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	1.00	5.00	3.38
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	47%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Arsenal	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.30
Conceded per game	0.60	1.00
Match goals	2.10	2.30	3.38
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	47%
Clean sheets	60%	50%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.00
Corners conceded	1.00	5.00
Match total	7.00	10.00	9.10
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	3.00	5.00	3.75
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Arsenal	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.67
Corners conceded	3.80	4.89
Match total	8.10	9.56	9.10
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.80
Opponent cards	2.90	1.90
Match total	4.40	3.70	3.75
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 139 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.63league 3.60

Red cards0.16league 0.15

Cards 5+53%league 35%

Fouls22.0league 23.2

Penalties0.30league 0.15

Home wins44%league 60%

Arsenal2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L7 May 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–24
W20 Sep 23H · PSV Eindhoven4–01

Lille1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L21 Jan 25A · Liverpool1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.