Arsenal vs Manchester City – 21 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 21 · 16:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 4th · 9 pts · 4 played WWLW

1–1Full time

Manchester City 12th · 6 pts · 4 played WLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Arsenal had 8.2 days of rest, Manchester City 7 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days8.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Arsenal53%

Draw24%

Manchester City23%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.19

Arsenal52%

Draw25%

Manchester City23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Arsenal54%

Draw23%

Manchester City23%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.17

Arsenal45%

Draw25%

Manchester City30%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.33

Arsenal52%

Draw25%

Manchester City23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.06

Over 2.5 59% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 120

Team strength

Arsenal

Manchester City

92 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 91

86 AttackIn forecast 92

95 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Manchester City

2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

75% Scored inContext 75%

75% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.50 ShotsContext 12.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

26% On target shareContext 34%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

69% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext —

9.75 Shots allowedContext 11.25

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

4.25 BlocksContext 2.50

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

92% Save rateContext 77%

52% PossessionIn forecast 57%

436 PassesContext 519

372 Accurate passesContext 451

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.20 Team ratingContext 7.07

11.25 FoulsContext 9.00

9.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

90% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 60%

14.60 ShotsContext 15.40

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

32% On target shareContext 31%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

74% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.60

10.50 Shots allowedContext 8.20

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.60 BlocksContext 2.22

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

81% Save rateContext 77%

54% PossessionIn forecast 61%

437 PassesContext 569

373 Accurate passesContext 506

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.09 Team ratingContext 7.19

10.50 FoulsContext 7.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester City

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	7Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 23Mikel Merino

19L. Trossard 14V. Gyökeres 20C. Madueke

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25G. Donnarumma(G)

33N. O'Reilly 24J. Gvardiol 3Rúben Dias 45A. Khusanov

16Rodri

11J. Doku 4T. Reijnders 20Bernardo Silva 47P. Foden

9E. Haaland

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester City Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-0.7 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Manchester City+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 0.00

Manchester City · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Manchester City
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Arsenal wins2 draws6 Manchester City wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.90 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

2 Feb 2025Arsenal5–1Manchester City
22 Sep 2024Manchester City2–2Arsenal
31 Mar 2024Manchester City0–0Arsenal
8 Oct 2023Arsenal1–0Manchester City
26 Apr 2023Manchester City4–1Arsenal
15 Feb 2023Arsenal1–3Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	2.25	2.00
Conceded per game	0.25	1.00
Match goals	2.50	3.00	3.07
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	59%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	0%	25%	59%
Clean sheets	75%	50%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

	Arsenal	Manchester City	Forecast
Scored per game	2.25	2.00
Conceded per game	0.25	1.00
Match goals	2.50	3.00	3.07
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	59%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	0%	25%	59%
Clean sheets	75%	50%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.00
Corners conceded	2.75	3.25
Match total	8.25	7.25	9.74
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	1.75	1.25
Opponent cards	1.50	1.75
Match total	3.25	3.00	3.72
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	Arsenal	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	6.30
Corners conceded	3.30	2.40
Match total	8.40	8.70	9.74
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.10
Opponent cards	1.50	1.80
Match total	3.60	2.90	3.72
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 120 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.57

Red cards0.13league 0.16

Cards 5+42%league 41%

Fouls21.0league 22.4

Penalties0.19league 0.24

Home wins50%league 47%

Arsenal7 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L4 Nov 23A · Newcastle0–11
W19 Mar 23H · Crystal Palace4–10
W12 Nov 22A · Wolves2–02
L1 Jan 22H · Manchester City1–25
W27 Nov 21H · Newcastle2–01

Manchester City6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L14 Jan 23A · Manchester United1–20
W28 Dec 22A · Leeds3–13
W8 May 22H · Newcastle5–01
W1 Jan 22A · Arsenal2–12
W21 Nov 21H · Everton3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.