Arsenal vs Newcastle – 25 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 34 Sat, Apr 25 · 17:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 2nd · 70 pts · 33 played WWWLL

1–0Full time

Newcastle 14th · 42 pts · 33 played WWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 75). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Arsenal. Arsenal had 6 days of rest, Newcastle 7.1 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Arsenal73%

Draw16%

Newcastle11%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.94

Arsenal68%

Draw20%

Newcastle13%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.83

Arsenal74%

Draw16%

Newcastle11%

Expected goals 2.67 – 0.94

Arsenal66%

Draw19%

Newcastle15%

Expected goals 2.35 – 1.05

Arsenal72%

Draw17%

Newcastle11%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.87

Over 2.5 69% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 81

Team strength

Arsenal

Newcastle

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

86 AttackIn forecast 61

95 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Newcastle

1.91 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.39

0.79 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

91% Scored inContext 79%

45% Clean sheetsContext 24%

14.48 ShotsContext 12.97

4.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.61

33% On target shareContext 36%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.39

74% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.10

8.03 Shots allowedContext 11.91

2.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.24

3.07 BlocksContext 3.77

2.12 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

73% Save rateContext 67%

56% PossessionIn forecast 53%

468 PassesContext 450

393 Accurate passesContext 374

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.30 FoulsContext 10.25

10.85 Fouls sufferedContext 12.18

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.73

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.07

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

90% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.60 ShotsContext 12.30

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

33% On target shareContext 40%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

65% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

9.40 Shots allowedContext 13.90

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.50 BlocksContext 3.50

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

79% Save rateContext 60%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

430 PassesContext 422

357 Accurate passesContext 345

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.80 FoulsContext 12.10

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	796 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 4B. White

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi 8M. Ødegaard

10E. Eze 29K. Havertz 20C. Madueke

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

8S. Tonali

41J. Ramsey 39Bruno Guimarães 28J. Willock 23J. Murphy

18W. Osula

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal-0.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Newcastle+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 2.38points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 12-2-2
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.69

Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-8
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Arsenal	Newcastle
Manchester City	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Bournemouth	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
Everton	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A
Brighton	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H
Tottenham	W 4–1 AW 4–1 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Wolves	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Brentford	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Leeds	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A
Manchester United	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Nottingham Forest	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H
Aston Villa	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Fulham	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
West Ham	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Points	67 of 96 · 2.09 per game	42 of 96 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

6 Arsenal wins1 draws3 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.30 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets50% · 40%

28 Sep 2025Newcastle1–2Arsenal
18 May 2025Arsenal1–0Newcastle
2 Nov 2024Newcastle1–0Arsenal
24 Feb 2024Arsenal4–1Newcastle
4 Nov 2023Newcastle1–0Arsenal
7 May 2023Newcastle0–2Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.91	1.39
Conceded per game	0.79	1.48
Match goals	2.70	2.88	3.57
Over 1.5	76%	76%
Over 2.5	55%	67%	69%
Over 3.5	27%	33%
Both teams scored	52%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	45%	24%
Failed to score	9%	21%
Games	33	33

	Arsenal	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.40
Conceded per game	0.90	2.00
Match goals	3.00	3.40	3.57
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	69%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	90%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.97	6.36
Corners conceded	3.55	4.88
Match total	9.52	11.24	10.06
Over 8.5	55% 17/31	76% 25/33
Over 9.5	52% 16/31	61% 20/33
Over 10.5	48% 15/31	52% 17/33
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.82
Opponent cards	1.94	2.45
Match total	3.24	4.27	3.90
Over 3.5	45% 15/33	61% 20/33
Over 4.5	21% 7/33	39% 13/33

	Arsenal	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.80
Corners conceded	4.30	4.50
Match total	10.30	9.30	10.06
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.40
Opponent cards	2.30	2.30
Match total	3.30	4.70	3.90
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 81 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.77

Red cards0.06league 0.12

Cards 5+30%league 38%

Fouls20.2league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins38%league 42%

Arsenal6 with this referee

Record6-0-0 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W7 Feb 26H · Sunderland3–01
W20 Dec 25A · Everton1–02
W4 Dec 24H · Manchester United2–01
W28 Sep 24H · Leicester4–22
W4 Mar 24A · Sheffield Utd6–00

Newcastle4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D18 Jan 26A · Wolves0–02
W22 Nov 25H · Manchester City2–11
W25 Jan 25A · Southampton3–10
W16 Dec 23H · Fulham3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.