Arsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 68). Arsenal had 12.8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 12.9 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days12.8 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Arsenal70%
Draw18%
Nottingham Forest12%
Arsenal68%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest12%
Arsenal70%
Draw18%
Nottingham Forest12%
Arsenal62%
Draw21%
Nottingham Forest16%
Arsenal68%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest12%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 101
Team strength
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
94
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
86
AttackIn forecast
68
95
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ArsenalNottingham Forest
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
67%
Scored inContext
67%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.67
ShotsContext
10.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
24%
On target shareContext
29%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
67%
Box shareContext
75%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.33
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.67
BlocksContext
—
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
91%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
421
PassesContext
491
357
Accurate passesContext
418
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.33
FoulsContext
10.67
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.10
ShotsContext
10.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
36%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
73%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
4.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
76%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
450
PassesContext
396
388
Accurate passesContext
325
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.00
FoulsContext
10.60
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arsenal
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arsenal |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.8Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 12.9Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
3Cristhian Mosquera
12J. Timber
23Mikel Merino
36Martín Zubimendi
8M. Ødegaard
10E. Eze
14V. Gyökeres
20C. Madueke
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
4Morato
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
3N. Williams
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
14D. Ndoye
11C. Wood
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arsenal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arsenal+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arsenal · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Arsenal wins1 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 33%
- 26 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest0–0Arsenal
- 23 Nov 2024Arsenal3–0Nottingham Forest
- 30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest1–2Arsenal
- 12 Aug 2023Arsenal2–1Nottingham Forest
- 20 May 2023Nottingham Forest1–0Arsenal
- 30 Oct 2022Arsenal5–0Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 10.00 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.80 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.30 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.50
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls22.4league 22.4
Penalties0.30league 0.33
Home wins44%league 50%
Arsenal5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D5 Apr 25A · Everton1–11
- W27 Dec 24H · Ipswich1–01
- W1 Apr 23H · Leeds4–10
- W13 Aug 22H · Leicester4–21
- L16 May 22A · Newcastle0–23
Nottingham Forest5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 May 25H · Brentford0–23
- W7 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–22
- D16 Mar 24A · Luton1–12
- L20 Jan 24A · Brentford2–33
- D18 Oct 22A · Brighton0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arsenal3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Nottingham Forest3 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
