AS Roma vs Atalanta – 18 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 18 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 6th · 57 pts · 32 played LLWLW

1–1Full time

Atalanta 7th · 53 pts · 32 played DDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Atalanta. AS Roma had 8 days of rest, Atalanta 7 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

AS Roma33%

Draw27%

Atalanta40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

AS Roma42%

Draw27%

Atalanta31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

AS Roma35%

Draw28%

Atalanta38%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.34

AS Roma27%

Draw26%

Atalanta47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

AS Roma33%

Draw26%

Atalanta40%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.50

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 47

Team strength

AS Roma

Atalanta

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

72 AttackIn forecast 48

75 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Atalanta

1.41 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

78% Scored inContext 81%

44% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.72 ShotsContext 14.78

4.28 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.77

34% On target shareContext 30%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 9.84

71% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.12 OffsidesContext 2.48

9.97 Shots allowedContext 11.38

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.84

2.73 BlocksContext 3.17

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

77% Save rateContext 80%

57% PossessionIn forecast 55%

478 PassesContext 481

400 Accurate passesContext 409

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.94

14.00 FoulsContext 10.72

13.91 Fouls sufferedContext 10.31

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

+0.68 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

100% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.60 ShotsContext 15.30

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

27% On target shareContext 34%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

80% Box shareContext 72%

17% ConversionContext 11%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.63

11.60 Shots allowedContext 12.70

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

2.78 BlocksContext 3.10

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

61% Save rateContext 60%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

457 PassesContext 471

376 Accurate passesContext 398

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.80

14.00 FoulsContext 9.90

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km957 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel481 km1,821 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Apr	7Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	957 km	1,821 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

2D. Rensch 8N. El Aynaoui 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

92S. El Shaarawy 18M. Soulé

14D. Malen

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

77D. Zappacosta 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 16R. Bellanova

18G. Raspadori 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma-1.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Atalanta+2.2 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 2.19points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 11-2-3
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 0.56

Atalanta · Away 1.40points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 5-6-4
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 0.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Atalanta
Pisa	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Inter	L 2–5 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H
Lecce	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 3–0 AW 4–1 H
Como	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Genoa	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 A
Juventus	D 3–3 HL 1–2 A	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Cremonese	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Napoli	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Udinese	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
AC Milan	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Torino	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
Sassuolo	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H
Parma	W 2–1 H	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 H
Verona	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A
Lazio	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Bologna	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Points	57 of 93 · 1.84 per game	50 of 93 · 1.61 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 AS Roma wins1 draws6 Atalanta wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.44 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets11% · 33%

3 Jan 2026Atalanta1–0AS Roma
12 May 2025Atalanta2–1AS Roma
2 Dec 2024AS Roma0–2Atalanta
12 May 2024Atalanta2–1AS Roma
7 Jan 2024AS Roma1–1Atalanta
24 Apr 2023Atalanta3–1AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.41	1.38
Conceded per game	0.88	0.88
Match goals	2.28	2.25	2.67
Over 1.5	59%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	38%	50%
Over 3.5	16%	16%
Both teams scored	34%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	44%	38%
Failed to score	22%	19%
Games	32	32

	AS Roma	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.90	0.80
Match goals	3.90	2.20	2.67
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.84	6.00
Corners conceded	3.19	4.16
Match total	8.03	10.16	8.70
Over 8.5	41% 13/32	65% 20/31
Over 9.5	28% 9/32	52% 16/31
Over 10.5	22% 7/32	42% 13/31
Cards
Cards	1.97	1.69
Opponent cards	2.16	1.56
Match total	4.13	3.25	3.91
Over 3.5	63% 20/32	47% 15/32
Over 4.5	41% 13/32	9% 3/32

	AS Roma	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.80
Corners conceded	3.70	3.00
Match total	8.40	8.80	8.70
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.20
Opponent cards	1.60	2.30
Match total	3.40	3.50	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.81league 3.73

Red cards0.30league 0.19

Cards 5+64%league 35%

Fouls23.8league 24.9

Penalties0.23league 0.30

Home wins55%league 40%

AS Roma6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W9 Feb 26H · Cagliari2–02
W10 Jan 26H · Sassuolo2–03
L3 Nov 24A · Verona2–32
D1 Apr 24A · Lecce0–02
W5 Feb 24H · Cagliari4–01

Atalanta4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W30 Nov 25H · Fiorentina2–01
W2 Sep 23H · Monza3–00
L4 Feb 23A · Sassuolo0–13
W15 Oct 22H · Sassuolo2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.