AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AS Roma33.1%fair odds 3.02
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.68
Atalanta39.7%fair odds 2.52
Expected goals1.27 – 1.41total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AS Roma ↓ · Atalanta → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AS Roma goals, columns Atalanta goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 0–19.1%11.02
- 1–28.7%11.56
- 1–08.1%12.35
- 2–17.8%12.85
- 0–07.6%13.22
- 0–26.8%14.62
- 2–05.5%18.07
- 2–25.5%18.27
- 1–34.1%24.66
Winning margin
4.9%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 20.28
9.6%
AS Roma by 2
fair 10.37
18.6%
AS Roma by 1
fair 5.39
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.68
20.7%
Atalanta by 1
fair 4.83
11.9%
Atalanta by 2
fair 8.40
7.0%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 14.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
AS Roma goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Atalanta goals
25%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 33.1% | 33.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 26.2% | +1.0 pp |
| Atalanta win | 39.7% | 40.4% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 54.1% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | 58.0% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.27 | 1.34 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 1.41 | 1.50 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AS Roma win33.1%3.02
- Draw27.2%3.68
- Atalanta win39.7%2.52
- Double chance AS Roma or draw60.3%1.66
- Double chance AS Roma or Atalanta72.8%1.37
- Double chance Atalanta or draw66.9%1.50
- Draw no bet AS Roma45.5%2.20
- Draw no bet Atalanta54.5%1.84
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.3%1.33
- Over 2.549.9%2.00
- Over 3.528.0%3.58
- Over 4.513.3%7.53
- Under 1.524.7%4.04
- Under 2.550.1%2.00
- Under 3.572.0%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.8%1.82
- No45.2%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- AS Roma win and yes16.2%6.17
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- Atalanta win and yes19.0%5.26
Team goals
- AS Roma over 0.571.8%1.39
- AS Roma over 1.536.1%2.77
- AS Roma over 2.513.5%7.41
- Atalanta over 0.575.5%1.32
- Atalanta over 1.541.0%2.44
- Atalanta over 2.516.8%5.95
- AS Roma clean sheet24.5%4.08
- Atalanta clean sheet28.2%3.54
- AS Roma win to nil16.9%5.90
- Atalanta win to nil20.7%4.84
Handicap
- AS Roma −1.514.6%6.86
- AS Roma −2.54.9%20.28
- Atalanta +1.585.4%1.17
- Atalanta +2.595.1%1.05
- Atalanta −1.519.0%5.28
- AS Roma +1.581.0%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored324
Favourite won51.9%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right51.5%
BTTS called right52.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 48 | 37.8% | 35.4% |
| 40–50% | 105 | 45.0% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 79 | 54.5% | 46.8% |
| 60–70% | 60 | 64.8% | 68.3% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 73.3% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 275 of 324 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5921 | 0.5780 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 51.6% | 53.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 275 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 324 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.