Aston Villa vs Fulham – 28 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 28 · 14:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 18th · 3 pts · 5 played DLLDD

3–1Full time

Fulham 9th · 8 pts · 5 played DDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 67). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, Fulham 7.8 and had to travel 163 km.

Away travel163 kmRest days2.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Aston Villa52%

Draw24%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.16

Aston Villa52%

Draw25%

Fulham23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Aston Villa53%

Draw24%

Fulham23%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.14

Aston Villa44%

Draw26%

Fulham30%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.30

Aston Villa51%

Draw26%

Fulham24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.08

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 116

Team strength

Aston Villa

Fulham

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

83 AttackIn forecast 66

78 DefenceIn forecast 68

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Fulham

0.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

20% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.40 ShotsContext 10.00

2.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

23% On target shareContext 30%

7.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

60% Box shareContext 68%

2% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.60

13.00 Shots allowedContext 10.20

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.80 BlocksContext 3.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 79%

59% PossessionIn forecast 51%

472 PassesContext 433

403 Accurate passesContext 361

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.40 FoulsContext 15.00

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

50% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 13.30

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

28% On target shareContext 29%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

66% Box shareContext 67%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.90 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.60 BlocksContext 3.40

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

82% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

424 PassesContext 441

356 Accurate passesContext 375

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.10 FoulsContext 13.80

13.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km543 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fulham

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel163 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Fulham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep	7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	543 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.3	5.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 5T. Mings 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

26L. Bogarde 7J. McGinn

27M. Rogers 9H. Elliott 29E. Guessand

11O. Watkins

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

30K. Sessegnon 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

16S. Berge 20S. Lukić

17A. Iwobi 24J. King 8H. Wilson

7R. Jiménez

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fulham Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa-1.2 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Fulham+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.50

Fulham · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Aston Villa	Fulham
Brentford	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

7 Aston Villa wins0 draws1 Fulham wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.88 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

3 May 2025Aston Villa1–0Fulham
19 Oct 2024Fulham1–3Aston Villa
17 Feb 2024Fulham1–2Aston Villa
12 Nov 2023Aston Villa3–1Fulham
25 Apr 2023Aston Villa1–0Fulham
20 Oct 2022Fulham3–0Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.20	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.20	2.20	2.97
Over 1.5	40%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	20%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	80%	20%
Games	5	5

	Aston Villa	Fulham	Forecast
Scored per game	0.33	1.20
Conceded per game	0.83	1.00
Match goals	1.17	2.20	2.97
Over 1.5	33%	80%
Over 2.5	17%	20%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	17%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	67%	20%
Games	6	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.20
Corners conceded	5.00	5.80
Match total	11.00	10.00	9.98
Over 8.5	100% 5/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	4.20	4.00	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5

	Aston Villa	Fulham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.56
Corners conceded	4.00	5.56
Match total	10.00	9.12	9.98
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.50	1.40
Match total	4.60	3.50	3.89
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 116 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.16

Cards 5+29%league 40%

Fouls23.1league 22.1

Penalties0.15league 0.21

Home wins48%league 46%

Aston Villa11 with this referee

Record3-2-6 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 0

L1 Feb 25A · Wolves0–23
W30 Sep 23H · Brighton6–14
L12 Aug 23A · Newcastle1–54
W1 Apr 23A · Chelsea2–03
L20 Aug 22A · Crystal Palace1–31

Fulham8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.0.9 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

L25 May 25H · Manchester City0–20
W16 Mar 25H · Tottenham2–00
W11 Feb 23H · Nottingham Forest2–00
W26 Dec 22A · Crystal Palace3–00
D6 Aug 22H · Liverpool2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.