Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel175 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Aston Villa—%
Draw—%
Hull City—%
Weather (Birmingham)
Forecast from 26 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Aston Villa and Hull City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Aston Villa
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Aston Villa
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Aston Villa
6
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Aston Villa
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Aston Villa
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Team strength
Aston VillaHull City
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
83
AttackIn forecast
37
78
DefenceIn forecast
50
84
Form indexContext
36
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHull City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaHull City
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
57%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
11.86
ShotsContext
10.71
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
64%
Box shareContext
45%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.40
15.86
Shots allowedContext
14.57
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.83
BlocksContext
4.29
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
71%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
32%
410
PassesContext
275
339
Accurate passesContext
197
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.71
FoulsContext
10.86
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.57
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.60
ShotsContext
10.30
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.88
65%
Box shareContext
50%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.57
15.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.22
BlocksContext
4.10
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
73%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
404
PassesContext
267
340
Accurate passesContext
182
84%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.50
FoulsContext
10.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
LWDWW
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Hull City
DDLDL
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Hull City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 3 Mar | 9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 3 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 252 km | 160 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Last XI · not confirmed
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
44J. Manzambi
47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Hull City
Last XI · not confirmed
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy
22L. Herrington
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Hull City
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Hull City · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Aston Villa wins1 draws0 Hull City wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 5 Sep 2026Hull City0–0Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Aston Villa | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 29% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 6.71 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 10.42 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.14 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.28 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Aston Villa | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.33 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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