Premier League Gameweek 29 Sat, Mar 13 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Arsenal—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 26 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Arsenal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ChelseaArsenal
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 94
77 AttackIn forecast 86
74 DefenceIn forecast 95
69 Form indexContext 92
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaArsenal
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
86% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 57%
14.29 ShotsContext 12.29
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
39% On target shareContext 34%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
63% Box shareContext 73%
17% ConversionContext 13%
1.60 OffsidesContext 4.00
12.43 Shots allowedContext 11.14
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.67 BlocksContext 3.00
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
73% Save rateContext 71%
47% PossessionIn forecast 61%
432 PassesContext 520
361 Accurate passesContext 453
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.09 Team ratingContext 7.06
9.29 FoulsContext 10.14
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 15.86
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
90% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 60%
12.30 ShotsContext 13.50
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
40% On target shareContext 34%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
60% Box shareContext 71%
17% ConversionContext 12%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.60
12.50 Shots allowedContext 10.80
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.44 BlocksContext 3.10
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
74% Save rateContext 75%
48% PossessionIn forecast 57%
442 PassesContext 508
370 Accurate passesContext 441
84% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.00 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.50 FoulsContext 11.20
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Arsenal
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 3 Mar9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 3 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways325 km524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 30 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Arsenal · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentChelseaArsenal
Brighton W 4–3 H L 0–3 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

0 Chelsea wins3 draws7 Arsenal wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.20 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets0% · 30%
  • 6 Sep 2026Arsenal2–1Chelsea
  • 1 Mar 2026Arsenal2–1Chelsea
  • 30 Nov 2025Chelsea1–1Arsenal
  • 16 Mar 2025Arsenal1–0Chelsea
  • 10 Nov 2024Chelsea1–1Arsenal
  • 23 Apr 2024Arsenal5–0Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaArsenalForecast
Scored per game 2.431.57
Conceded per game 1.860.71
Match goals 4.292.29
Over 1.5 100%71%
Over 2.5 86%57%
Over 3.5 57%0%
Both teams scored 71%29%
Clean sheets 14%57%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
ChelseaArsenalForecast
Scored per game 2.101.70
Conceded per game 1.700.60
Match goals 3.802.30
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 80%60%
Over 3.5 40%0%
Both teams scored 80%30%
Clean sheets 10%60%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won5.864.71
Corners conceded5.434.00
Match total11.298.719.49
Over 8.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 9.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 10.557% 4/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.861.29
Opponent cards3.003.29
Match total4.864.584.17
Over 3.586% 6/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ChelseaArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.67
Corners conceded5.304.44
Match total10.109.119.49
Over 8.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 9.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 10.540% 4/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.601.60
Opponent cards3.102.80
Match total5.704.404.17
Over 3.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Everton Mar 1315:00 Bournemouth Newcastle Mar 1315:00 Liverpool Ipswich Mar 1315:00 Tottenham Nottingham Forest Mar 1315:00 Chelsea Arsenal Mar 1315:00 Crystal Palace Fulham Mar 1315:00 Leeds Brighton Mar 1315:00 Aston Villa Hull City Mar 1315:00 Sunderland Brentford Mar 1315:00 Coventry Manchester City Mar 1315:00