Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Liverpool. Aston Villa had 5.3 days of rest, Liverpool 6.3 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days5.3 · 6.3Matches / 14d3 · 2
Aston Villa45%
Draw24%
Liverpool31%
Aston Villa42%
Draw27%
Liverpool31%
Aston Villa43%
Draw24%
Liverpool33%
Aston Villa37%
Draw24%
Liverpool39%
Aston Villa44%
Draw25%
Liverpool31%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 164
Team strength
Aston Villa
Liverpool
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
83
AttackIn forecast
85
78
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaLiverpool
1.39
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
72%
Scored inContext
89%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
12.69
ShotsContext
15.22
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
34%
On target shareContext
30%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.72
Shots allowedContext
11.39
4.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.92
BlocksContext
3.38
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
70%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
453
PassesContext
534
386
Accurate passesContext
458
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.89
FoulsContext
10.00
12.92
Fouls sufferedContext
10.58
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.50
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
39%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
60%
Box shareContext
61%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.30
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
73%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
425
PassesContext
472
361
Accurate passesContext
392
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.70
FoulsContext
11.50
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Liverpool
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel126 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.3Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 99 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
3V. Lindelöf
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
25G. Mamardashvili(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
2J. Gomez
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
73R. Ngumoha
8D. Szoboszlai
17C. Jones
18C. Gakpo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Liverpool-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
1.94points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.11
Liverpool · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-8
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.61
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Tottenham | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fulham | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Sunderland | W 4–3 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| West Ham | W 2–0 HW 3–2 A | W 5–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Wolves | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Brighton | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H |
| Brentford | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Everton | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 59 of 105 · 1.69 per game | 56 of 105 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Aston Villa wins3 draws7 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 1 Nov 2025Liverpool2–0Aston Villa
- 19 Feb 2025Aston Villa2–2Liverpool
- 9 Nov 2024Liverpool2–0Aston Villa
- 13 May 2024Aston Villa3–3Liverpool
- 3 Sep 2023Liverpool3–0Aston Villa
- 20 May 2023Liverpool1–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.39 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 61% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 11% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.31 | 5.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.51 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 10.48 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 27/35 | 74% 26/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 24/35 | 54% 19/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 16/35 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 3.67 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 23/36 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 14/36 | 28% 10/36 | |
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.80 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 164 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.6
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins40%league 42%
Aston Villa11 with this referee
Record3-4-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds3
- W30 Nov 25H · Wolves1–00
- D18 Jan 25A · Arsenal2–23
- D26 Oct 24H · Bournemouth1–17
- L10 Mar 24H · Tottenham0–41
- D12 Mar 23A · West Ham1–10
Liverpool23 with this referee
Record13-5-5
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W19 Apr 26A · Everton2–10
- D15 Mar 26H · Tottenham1–10
- W11 Feb 26A · Sunderland1–00
- D1 Jan 26H · Leeds0–00
- L9 Nov 25A · Manchester City0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa36 games · scored 50 · conceded 46
4
9
0-15
6
4
16-30
10
9
31-45
9
9
46-60
8
7
61-75
13
8
76-90
Liverpool36 games · scored 60 · conceded 48
4
7
0-15
5
3
16-30
15
6
31-45
11
8
46-60
6
8
61-75
19
16
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
