Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, Sunderland 7 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Aston Villa58%
Draw23%
Sunderland19%
Aston Villa65%
Draw21%
Sunderland14%
Aston Villa57%
Draw24%
Sunderland19%
Aston Villa50%
Draw25%
Sunderland24%
Aston Villa57%
Draw24%
Sunderland19%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 80
Team strength
Aston Villa
Sunderland
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
83
AttackIn forecast
62
78
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaSunderland
1.34
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
72%
Scored inContext
66%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.78
ShotsContext
9.97
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.26
Shots in the boxContext
7.39
62%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.81
Shots allowedContext
14.56
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
4.00
BlocksContext
4.59
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
71%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
452
PassesContext
369
385
Accurate passesContext
290
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.85
9.78
FoulsContext
10.50
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
10.97
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
34%
On target shareContext
31%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
61%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.10
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
4.10
BlocksContext
5.20
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
72%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
448
PassesContext
363
384
Accurate passesContext
284
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.40
FoulsContext
12.10
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,777 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Sunderland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,777 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
5T. Mings
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
24A. Onana
27M. Rogers
6R. Barkley
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
13L. O'Nien
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
19M. Diarra
11C. Rigg
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Sunderland-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-4
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 0.94
Sunderland · Away
1.06points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-7
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| West Ham | W 2–0 HW 3–2 A | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Wolves | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Brighton | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Brentford | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Everton | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 54 of 93 · 1.74 per game | 45 of 93 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Aston Villa wins1 draws0 Sunderland wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025Sunderland1–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.34 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.16 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 41% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 44% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.29 | 8.75 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 24/31 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 22/31 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 16/31 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.47 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 13/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.30 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.77
Red cards0.06league 0.12
Cards 5+30%league 39%
Fouls20.2league 21.5
Penalties0.24league 0.22
Home wins38%league 41%
Aston Villa4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 25A · Sunderland1–11
- W15 Jan 25A · Everton1–01
- L14 Dec 24A · Nottingham Forest1–21
- W24 Feb 24H · Nottingham Forest4–21
Sunderland4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L7 Feb 26A · Arsenal0–32
- D21 Sep 25H · Aston Villa1–13
- W29 Sep 23A · Sheffield Wednesday3–00
- L6 Aug 23H · Ipswich1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa32 games · scored 43 · conceded 38
3
6
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
8
31-45
7
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
11
6
76-90
Sunderland32 games · scored 33 · conceded 36
1
7
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
5
46-60
10
9
61-75
9
6
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
