Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Aston Villa58.1%fair odds 1.72
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.29
Sunderland18.6%fair odds 5.37
Expected goals1.89 – 0.98total 2.87
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Aston Villa ↓ · Sunderland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Aston Villa goals, columns Sunderland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.03
- 1–010.2%9.82
- 2–010.1%9.87
- 2–19.9%10.08
- 3–06.4%15.68
- 0–06.2%16.01
- 3–16.2%16.02
- 1–25.1%19.44
- 0–15.0%19.95
- 2–24.9%20.59
Winning margin
16.4%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 6.10
18.0%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 5.55
23.7%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.22
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.29
12.0%
Sunderland by 1
fair 8.33
4.8%
Sunderland by 2
fair 20.64
1.8%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 56.69
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Aston Villa goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Sunderland goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 58.1% | 56.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.4% | -1.1 pp |
| Sunderland win | 18.6% | 19.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 50.8% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 51.0% | +2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.89 | 1.77 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 0.98 | 0.93 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Aston Villa win58.1%1.72
- Draw23.3%4.29
- Sunderland win18.6%5.37
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw81.4%1.23
- Double chance Aston Villa or Sunderland76.7%1.30
- Double chance Sunderland or draw41.9%2.39
- Draw no bet Aston Villa75.7%1.32
- Draw no bet Sunderland24.3%4.12
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.6%1.27
- Over 2.554.6%1.83
- Over 3.532.3%3.10
- Over 4.516.3%6.14
- Under 1.521.4%4.66
- Under 2.545.4%2.20
- Under 3.567.7%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.35
- Aston Villa win and yes26.8%3.74
- Draw and yes17.0%5.87
- Sunderland win and yes9.7%10.28
Team goals
- Aston Villa over 0.584.9%1.18
- Aston Villa over 1.556.3%1.78
- Aston Villa over 2.529.3%3.41
- Sunderland over 0.562.4%1.60
- Sunderland over 1.525.6%3.90
- Sunderland over 2.57.6%13.08
- Aston Villa clean sheet37.6%2.66
- Sunderland clean sheet15.1%6.60
- Aston Villa win to nil31.3%3.19
- Sunderland win to nil8.9%11.24
Handicap
- Aston Villa −1.534.4%2.91
- Aston Villa −2.516.4%6.10
- Sunderland +1.565.6%1.52
- Sunderland +2.583.6%1.20
- Sunderland −1.56.6%15.13
- Aston Villa +1.593.4%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored324
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.629
Over 2.5 called right54.6%
BTTS called right54.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 47 | 38.3% | 36.2% |
| 40–50% | 118 | 45.0% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 89 | 54.9% | 52.8% |
| 60–70% | 43 | 64.2% | 55.8% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 73.7% | 54.2% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 265 of 324 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6296 | 0.6184 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.7% | 39.4% |
| Favourite won | 47.5% | 49.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 265 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 324 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.