Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Atalanta had 3 days of rest, AC Milan 4 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atalanta46%
Draw27%
AC Milan27%
Atalanta46%
Draw26%
AC Milan28%
Atalanta45%
Draw28%
AC Milan27%
Atalanta39%
Draw28%
AC Milan34%
Atalanta47%
Draw26%
AC Milan27%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 69
Team strength
Atalanta
AC Milan
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
48
AttackIn forecast
72
45
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaAC Milan
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
88%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.38
ShotsContext
14.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
33%
On target shareContext
33%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
66%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.00
Shots allowedContext
8.25
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
3.29
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
85%
Save rateContext
80%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
486
PassesContext
493
415
Accurate passesContext
436
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.88
FoulsContext
9.75
8.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.88
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
14.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
32%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
65%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.10
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.22
BlocksContext
2.89
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
80%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
453
PassesContext
498
382
Accurate passesContext
446
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.70
FoulsContext
10.20
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
AC Milan
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel45 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 137 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
4I. Hien
3K. Kossounou
47L. Bernasconi
15M. de Roon
13Éderson
77D. Zappacosta
8M. Pašalić
11A. Lookman
17C. De Ketelaere
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
4S. Ricci
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
7S. Giménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- AC Milan-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
AC Milan · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Lecce | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Atalanta wins2 draws3 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 20 Apr 2025AC Milan0–1Atalanta
- 6 Dec 2024Atalanta2–1AC Milan
- 25 Feb 2024AC Milan1–1Atalanta
- 9 Dec 2023Atalanta3–2AC Milan
- 26 Feb 2023AC Milan2–0Atalanta
- 21 Aug 2022Atalanta1–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 63% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Atalanta | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 63% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.86 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 8.00 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Atalanta | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.00 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.30league 3.90
Red cards0.20league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls24.9league 25.8
Penalties0.22league 0.28
Home wins26%league 37%
Atalanta7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L30 Mar 25A · Fiorentina0–13
- D14 Jan 25H · Juventus1–11
- W3 Nov 24A · Napoli3–03
- L7 May 23H · Juventus0–21
- W28 Jan 23H · Sampdoria2–00
AC Milan11 with this referee
Record5-4-2
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W20 Sep 25A · Udinese3–00
- W8 Mar 25A · Lecce3–21
- W11 Feb 24H · Napoli1–01
- D22 Dec 23A · Salernitana2–21
- L13 May 23A · Spezia0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta8 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
AC Milan8 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
