Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 58). Atalanta had 14.9 days of rest, Lazio 15.1 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days14.9 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Atalanta53%
Draw26%
Lazio22%
Atalanta53%
Draw25%
Lazio22%
Atalanta52%
Draw26%
Lazio22%
Atalanta45%
Draw27%
Lazio27%
Atalanta54%
Draw25%
Lazio22%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 13
Team strength
Atalanta
Lazio
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
48
AttackIn forecast
53
45
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaLazio
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
100%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.83
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.20
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.33
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
3.67
BlocksContext
2.00
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
85%
Save rateContext
77%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
461
PassesContext
439
389
Accurate passesContext
372
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.33
FoulsContext
12.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
18.17
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
12.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
32%
On target shareContext
30%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
68%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.14
13.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.60
BlocksContext
2.20
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
437
PassesContext
453
369
Accurate passesContext
386
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.20
FoulsContext
11.40
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
4I. Hien
19B. Djimsiti
47L. Bernasconi
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
77D. Zappacosta
7K. Sulemana
17C. De Ketelaere
11A. Lookman
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lazio-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lazio · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Torino | W 3–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Atalanta wins3 draws3 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 6 Apr 2025Atalanta0–1Lazio
- 28 Dec 2024Lazio1–1Atalanta
- 4 Feb 2024Atalanta3–1Lazio
- 8 Oct 2023Lazio3–2Atalanta
- 11 Feb 2023Lazio0–2Atalanta
- 23 Oct 2022Atalanta0–2Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.83 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Atalanta | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.83 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.00 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.83 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 2.33 | 4.83 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Atalanta | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.38 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.60 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 1.90 | 6.20 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.73
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+31%league 36%
Fouls25.5league 26.2
Penalties0.15league 0.24
Home wins46%league 37%
Atalanta1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Mar 25H · Venezia0–01
LazioNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta6 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Lazio6 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
