Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 33). Atalanta had 6.1 days of rest, Udinese 4.9 and had to travel 279 km.
Away travel279 kmRest days6.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atalanta66%
Draw21%
Udinese13%
Atalanta67%
Draw20%
Udinese13%
Atalanta66%
Draw21%
Udinese13%
Atalanta59%
Draw24%
Udinese17%
Atalanta67%
Draw20%
Udinese13%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 56
Team strength
Atalanta
Udinese
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
48
AttackIn forecast
22
45
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaUdinese
1.37
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
81%
Scored inContext
78%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
14.59
ShotsContext
11.04
4.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
32%
On target shareContext
32%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
66%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.35
OffsidesContext
1.90
11.52
Shots allowedContext
11.93
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.20
BlocksContext
3.33
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
80%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
476
PassesContext
353
406
Accurate passesContext
283
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.00
FoulsContext
13.85
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.70
ShotsContext
8.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
37%
On target shareContext
35%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.89
68%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.60
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.22
BlocksContext
3.30
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
83%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
490
PassesContext
350
417
Accurate passesContext
274
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.50
FoulsContext
14.00
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km268 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel279 km459 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 279 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 268 km | 459 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
23S. Kolašinac
4I. Hien
3K. Kossounou
47L. Bernasconi
8M. Pašalić
6Y. Musah
16R. Bellanova
7K. Sulemana
10L. Samardžić
9G. Scamacca
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
31T. Kristensen
27C. Kabasele
22B. Mlacic
11H. Kamara
32J. Ekkelenkamp
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
10N. Zaniolo
9K. Davis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Udinese+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
2.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 0.79
Udinese · Away
1.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-7
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Napoli | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Como | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Parma | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Pisa | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bologna | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Verona | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Lecce | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Points | 45 of 78 · 1.73 per game | 32 of 78 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Atalanta wins5 draws1 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.56 – 0.89
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 1 Nov 2025Udinese1–0Atalanta
- 11 Jan 2025Udinese0–0Atalanta
- 10 Nov 2024Atalanta2–1Udinese
- 27 Jan 2024Atalanta2–0Udinese
- 12 Nov 2023Udinese1–1Atalanta
- 4 Mar 2023Atalanta0–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.37 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.59 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 52% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 56% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 22% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Atalanta | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 4.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.12 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 18/26 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.74 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 1.85 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.70 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 3/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Atalanta | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 9.33 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 3.77
Red cards0.34league 0.19
Cards 5+48%league 37%
Fouls25.6league 25.2
Penalties0.27league 0.31
Home wins50%league 39%
Atalanta5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D28 Sep 24A · Bologna1–13
- L25 Aug 24A · Torino1–24
- W18 May 24A · Lecce2–04
- L7 Apr 24A · Cagliari1–23
- L23 Dec 23A · Bologna0–14
Udinese4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L8 Feb 26A · Lecce1–22
- L20 Aug 23H · Juventus0–31
- W6 Feb 22H · Torino2–03
- L23 Sep 21A · AS Roma0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta27 games · scored 37 · conceded 24
6
1
0-15
3
7
16-30
8
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
5
61-75
10
6
76-90
Udinese27 games · scored 31 · conceded 39
4
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
4
8
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
