Atalanta vs Verona – 22 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 30 Sun, Mar 22 · 14:00 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 7th · 47 pts · 29 played WWLDD

1–0Full time

Verona 19th · 18 pts · 29 played LLLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were clear favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Verona. Atalanta had 8 days of rest, Verona 7.1 and had to travel 107 km.

Away travel107 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Atalanta75%

Draw17%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.35 – 0.66

Atalanta76%

Draw16%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.71

Atalanta74%

Draw18%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.29 – 0.67

Atalanta68%

Draw20%

Verona11%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.74

Atalanta77%

Draw15%

Verona8%

Expected goals 2.58 – 0.74

Over 2.5 58% Both score 44% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 49

Team strength

Atalanta

Verona

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

48 AttackIn forecast 15

45 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Verona

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.76

0.93 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.76

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

83% Scored inContext 52%

34% Clean sheetsContext 17%

14.59 ShotsContext 10.52

4.85 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

31% On target shareContext 34%

9.66 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

65% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.30

11.55 Shots allowedContext 13.34

3.93 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.46

3.15 BlocksContext 4.17

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

80% Save rateContext 61%

55% PossessionIn forecast 40%

480 PassesContext 325

409 Accurate passesContext 243

85% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.63

10.66 FoulsContext 15.55

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

1.66 Yellow cardsContext 2.17

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 0.72

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

90% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.00 ShotsContext 9.00

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

38% On target shareContext 29%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.40

71% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.86

13.60 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.20 BlocksContext 4.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

64% Save rateContext 53%

51% PossessionIn forecast 42%

471 PassesContext 341

401 Accurate passesContext 261

85% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.62

9.90 FoulsContext 13.90

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km90 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel107 km217 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Mar	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	107 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	90 km	217 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

6N. Valentini 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson

3M. Frese 21A. Harroui 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 7R. Belghali

16G. Orban 18K. Bowie

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+1.2 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Verona-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.93points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-5-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 0.87

Verona · Away 0.73points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-8
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.87

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Verona
Inter	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Udinese	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A
Sassuolo	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Napoli	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Lazio	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Como	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Parma	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Pisa	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Torino	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A	L 0–3 H
Bologna	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
AS Roma	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Genoa	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Juventus	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Lecce	W 4–1 H	D 0–0 A
Points	47 of 84 · 1.68 per game	15 of 84 · 0.54 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Atalanta wins1 draws2 Verona wins

Goals per game2.44 – 1.11 Over 2.578% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

6 Dec 2025Verona3–1Atalanta
8 Feb 2025Verona0–5Atalanta
26 Oct 2024Atalanta6–1Verona
15 Apr 2024Atalanta2–2Verona
27 Sep 2023Verona0–1Atalanta
20 May 2023Atalanta3–1Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	0.76
Conceded per game	0.93	1.76
Match goals	2.31	2.52	3.00
Over 1.5	79%	76%
Over 2.5	38%	62%	58%
Over 3.5	17%	28%
Both teams scored	55%	52%	44%
Clean sheets	34%	17%
Failed to score	17%	48%
Games	29	29

	Atalanta	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	0.70
Conceded per game	0.80	2.00
Match goals	2.50	2.70	3.00
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	44%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.93	3.68
Corners conceded	4.32	4.71
Match total	10.25	8.39	8.73
Over 8.5	68% 19/28	54% 15/28
Over 9.5	54% 15/28	32% 9/28
Over 10.5	43% 12/28	21% 6/28
Cards
Cards	1.72	2.28
Opponent cards	1.52	1.69
Match total	3.24	3.97	3.93
Over 3.5	45% 13/29	48% 14/29
Over 4.5	10% 3/29	38% 11/29

	Atalanta	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	4.00
Corners conceded	3.20	4.89
Match total	8.90	8.89	8.73
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.80
Match total	3.70	3.70	3.93
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.47league 3.75

Red cards0.29league 0.19

Cards 5+78%league 35%

Fouls27.9league 25.1

Penalties0.16league 0.30

Home wins37%league 40%

Atalanta2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Oct 22A · Empoli2–01
W27 Nov 21A · Juventus1–05

Verona7 with this referee

Record3-4-0 Cards · opp.3.9 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds3

W15 Mar 25A · Udinese1–02
W30 Dec 24A · Bologna3–25
W1 Sep 24A · Genoa2–06
D9 Dec 23H · Lazio1–12
D6 Feb 23H · Lazio1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.