Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atalanta74.8%fair odds 1.34
Draw16.9%fair odds 5.91
Verona8.2%fair odds 12.13
Expected goals2.35 – 0.66total 3.00
Likeliest score2–013.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Verona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atalanta ↓ · Verona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atalanta goals, columns Verona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.6%7.33
- 1–011.2%8.91
- 3–010.7%9.36
- 2–19.0%11.14
- 1–18.1%12.42
- 3–17.0%14.24
- 4–06.3%15.96
- 0–05.4%18.65
- 4–14.1%24.27
- 2–23.0%33.88
Winning margin
29.8%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 3.35
22.2%
Atalanta by 2
fair 4.51
22.8%
Atalanta by 1
fair 4.38
16.9%
Draw
fair 5.91
6.1%
Verona by 1
fair 16.38
1.7%
Verona by 2
fair 57.45
0.4%
Verona by 3+
fair 249.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Atalanta goals
10%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Verona goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 74.8% | 76.6% | -1.8 pp |
| Draw | 16.9% | 15.3% | +1.6 pp |
| Verona win | 8.2% | 8.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 64.5% | -6.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.0% | 48.7% | -4.7 pp |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 2.35 | 2.58 | -0.23 |
| Expected goals Verona | 0.66 | 0.74 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atalanta win74.8%1.34
- Draw16.9%5.91
- Verona win8.2%12.13
- Double chance Atalanta or draw91.8%1.09
- Double chance Atalanta or Verona83.1%1.20
- Double chance Verona or draw25.2%3.97
- Draw no bet Atalanta90.1%1.11
- Draw no bet Verona9.9%10.07
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.6%1.24
- Over 2.557.8%1.73
- Over 3.535.4%2.83
- Over 4.518.5%5.39
- Under 1.519.4%5.14
- Under 2.542.2%2.37
- Under 3.564.6%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes44.0%2.27
- No56.0%1.79
- Yes and over 2.535.9%2.78
- Atalanta win and yes28.4%3.52
- Draw and yes11.6%8.65
- Verona win and yes4.0%24.74
Team goals
- Atalanta over 0.590.4%1.11
- Atalanta over 1.568.0%1.47
- Atalanta over 2.541.6%2.40
- Verona over 0.548.2%2.08
- Verona over 1.514.1%7.08
- Verona over 2.52.9%34.26
- Atalanta clean sheet51.8%1.93
- Verona clean sheet9.6%10.45
- Atalanta win to nil46.4%2.15
- Verona win to nil4.2%23.79
Handicap
- Atalanta −1.552.0%1.92
- Atalanta −2.529.8%3.35
- Verona +1.548.0%2.08
- Verona +2.570.2%1.42
- Verona −1.52.1%46.71
- Atalanta +1.597.9%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored296
Favourite won51.0%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.596
Over 2.5 called right51.4%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 45 | 37.8% | 35.6% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 45.0% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 68 | 54.5% | 47.1% |
| 60–70% | 58 | 64.8% | 67.2% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.3% | 63.6% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 247 of 296 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5969 | 0.5800 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.6% | 52.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 247 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 296 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.