Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Atletico Madrid
3rd · 51 pts · 26 played
DLLWW
3–2Full time
Real Sociedad
8th · 35 pts · 26 played
DWLDW
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Sociedad. Atletico Madrid had 6.9 days of rest, Real Sociedad 7 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Atletico Madrid53%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad22%
Atletico Madrid61%
Draw23%
Real Sociedad17%
Atletico Madrid54%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad21%
Atletico Madrid46%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad28%
Atletico Madrid54%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad22%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 16
Team strength
Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
82
AttackIn forecast
62
87
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
1.65
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
85%
Scored inContext
88%
42%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
12.88
ShotsContext
12.65
5.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
41%
On target shareContext
37%
8.96
Shots in the boxContext
7.85
69%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.62
OffsidesContext
2.80
10.38
Shots allowedContext
12.35
3.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
2.67
BlocksContext
3.57
2.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
74%
Save rateContext
66%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
518
PassesContext
429
445
Accurate passesContext
354
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.92
FoulsContext
14.54
9.69
Fouls sufferedContext
11.73
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.90
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
36%
On target shareContext
41%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
71%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
3.20
OffsidesContext
2.75
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.60
BlocksContext
3.50
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
547
PassesContext
407
471
Accurate passesContext
336
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.20
FoulsContext
13.20
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km1,134 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 744 km | 1,134 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
2J. Giménez
16N. Molina
11T. Almada
6Koke
4Rodrigo Mendoza
20G. Simeone
22A. Lookman
9A. Sørloth
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
7Barrenetxea
18Carlos Soler
12Y. Herrera
15Pablo Marín
9O. Óskarsson
24L. Sučić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-1
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 0.77
Real Sociedad · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Levante | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | W 5–2 H | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 50 of 75 · 2.00 per game | 34 of 75 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Atletico Madrid wins4 draws0 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.90 – 0.90
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 4 Jan 2026Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
- 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–0Real Sociedad
- 6 Oct 2024Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
- 25 May 2024Real Sociedad0–2Atletico Madrid
- 8 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
- 28 May 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.65 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 2.92 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 81% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 12% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Atletico Madrid | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 90% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.62 | 5.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.81 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 10.19 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 20/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 15/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 13/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.54 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.40 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 4.21
Red cards0.19league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls25.7league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.37
Home wins75%league 46%
Atletico Madrid1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Real Betis4–11
Real Sociedad2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W24 Oct 25H · Sevilla2–11
- L30 Aug 25A · Oviedo0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid26 games · scored 43 · conceded 23
9
3
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
7
4
61-75
11
7
76-90
Real Sociedad26 games · scored 38 · conceded 38
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
10
31-45
7
9
46-60
6
3
61-75
10
9
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
