Ligue 1 Gameweek 30 Sat, May 1 · 16:00 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
Auxerre 12th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Lyon 1st · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel249 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Auxerre—%
Draw—%
Lyon—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Auxerre)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Auxerre and Lyon. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AuxerreLyon
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 60
39 AttackIn forecast 55
25 DefenceIn forecast 56
61 Form indexContext 85
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AuxerreLyon
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
2.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60
-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.64
100% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
11.86 ShotsContext 12.29
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
43% On target shareContext 38%
6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.57
49% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 15%
2.80 OffsidesContext 2.20
14.71 Shots allowedContext 11.86
6.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
4.00 BlocksContext 1.71
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
68% Save rateContext 79%
45% PossessionIn forecast 52%
384 PassesContext 468
311 Accurate passesContext 400
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.62 Team ratingContext 6.97
14.86 FoulsContext 11.00
10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14
1.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.43
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
2.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
100% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.10 ShotsContext 12.70
5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89
45% On target shareContext 42%
7.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
55% Box shareContext 72%
15% ConversionContext 15%
2.57 OffsidesContext 2.57
13.20 Shots allowedContext 12.40
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.33 BlocksContext 2.30
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
67% Save rateContext 76%
45% PossessionIn forecast 52%
385 PassesContext 457
312 Accurate passesContext 389
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.75 Team ratingContext 6.95
14.60 FoulsContext 10.50
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,040 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · LE Havre3–11.1 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Rennes1–40.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Stade Brestois 292–11.3 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Nice1–01.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · Lyon1–30.6 xPts
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel249 km923 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Auxerre Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km249 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,040 km923 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one78.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs LE Havre (A) 3–1, 18 Oct
1P. Nardi(G)
92C. Akpa 4A. Tuanzebe 15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård 5K. Danois 8N. Ahamada 27L. Sy
10D. Namaso 21R. Faivre
9C. Archer
Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Auxerre Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lyon Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33
Lyon · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAuxerreLyon
LE Havre W 3–1 A D 1–1 H
Rennes L 1–4 A W 4–0 H
Nice W 1–0 H W 2–1 H
Lens L 2–5 A L 1–2 A
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Auxerre wins2 draws4 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.29 – 2.00 Over 2.586% Both scored86% Clean sheets14% · 14%
  • 4 Sep 2026Lyon3–1Auxerre
  • 25 Apr 2026Lyon3–2Auxerre
  • 23 Nov 2025Auxerre0–0Lyon
  • 13 Apr 2025Auxerre1–3Lyon
  • 27 Oct 2024Lyon2–2Auxerre
  • 17 Feb 2023Auxerre2–1Lyon

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AuxerreLyonForecast
Scored per game 1.571.86
Conceded per game 2.430.71
Match goals 4.002.57
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 86%57%
Over 3.5 71%29%
Both teams scored 86%57%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 0%14%
Games77
AuxerreLyonForecast
Scored per game 1.801.90
Conceded per game 1.901.00
Match goals 3.702.90
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AuxerreLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.574.29
Corners conceded7.576.29
Match total13.1410.589.63
Over 8.5100% 7/786% 6/7
Over 9.5100% 7/786% 6/7
Over 10.5100% 7/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards1.571.57
Opponent cards1.712.14
Match total3.283.713.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
AuxerreLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.504.40
Corners conceded6.406.00
Match total11.9010.409.63
Over 8.590% 9/1080% 8/10
Over 9.590% 9/1080% 8/10
Over 10.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.601.50
Opponent cards1.902.10
Match total3.503.603.47
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Auxerre7 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
4 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Lyon7 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
3 5 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Paris Saint Germain Angers May 116:00 Monaco Lorient May 116:00 Rennes Nice May 116:00 Strasbourg Lille May 116:00 Toulouse Marseille May 116:00 Auxerre Lyon May 116:00 Estac Troyes Stade Brestois 29 May 116:00 LE Havre Paris FC May 116:00 Lens Le Mans May 116:00