Lens vs Le Mans – 1 May 2027

Ligue 1 Gameweek 30 Sat, May 1 · 16:00 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 8th · 10 pts · 7 played LDLWW

VS— Compare

Le Mans 16th · 6 pts · 7 played DDWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel331 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Lens—%

Draw—%

Le Mans—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Lens)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lens

Le Mans

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

63 AttackIn forecast 27

53 DefenceIn forecast 21

51 Form indexContext 31

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Le Mans

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Le Mans

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.14

2.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.89

-0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

86% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.71 ShotsContext 10.14

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.86

41% On target shareContext 38%

10.57 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

74% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 14%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.40

11.29 Shots allowedContext 16.57

4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.43

2.67 BlocksContext 3.43

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

71% Save rateContext 58%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

487 PassesContext 406

418 Accurate passesContext 325

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.60

11.57 FoulsContext 14.86

13.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.14

2.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.89

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 86%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.40 ShotsContext 10.14

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.86

37% On target shareContext 38%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.29

70% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.40

12.30 Shots allowedContext 16.57

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.43

3.44 BlocksContext 3.43

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

71% Save rateContext 58%

52% PossessionIn forecast 45%

474 PassesContext 406

405 Accurate passesContext 325

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.60

10.80 FoulsContext 14.86

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.14

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 7 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens DLWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km358 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts

Le Mans DDWLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel331 km700 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 31 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

L16 OctH · Toulouse0–31.4 xPts
L10 OctA · Paris Saint Germain1–30.3 xPts
W19 SepH · Lorient2–11.5 xPts
D13 SepH · Lens2–20.9 xPts
D5 SepA · Nice1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Le Mans
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	331 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	358 km	700 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

40R. Risser(G)

20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio

22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar

7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

Le Mans Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Toulouse (H) 0–3, 16 Oct

98N. Kocik(G)

5H. Voyer 17S. Yohou 19D. Sidibé

29Lucas Bretelle

76Y. Larouci 10J. Vercruysse 23D. Traoré 18L. Buadés

14L. Mafouta 25D. Guèye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Le Mans Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.33

Le Mans · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Lens	Le Mans
Lorient	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Lens wins1 draws0 Le Mans wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

13 Sep 2026Le Mans2–2Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Le Mans
Scored per game	2.00	1.43
Conceded per game	1.57	2.14
Match goals	3.57	3.57
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	86%	86%
Over 3.5	43%	57%
Both teams scored	86%	86%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	14%	14%
Games	7	7

	Lens	Le Mans
Scored per game	2.10	1.43
Conceded per game	1.50	2.14
Match goals	3.60	3.57
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	86%
Over 3.5	50%	57%
Both teams scored	70%	86%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	20%	14%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Le Mans	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	2.71
Corners conceded	4.17	5.86
Match total	10.50	8.57	9.63
Over 8.5	100% 6/6	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.57
Opponent cards	1.57	1.86
Match total	3.57	4.43	3.47
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	57% 4/7

	Lens	Le Mans	League
Corners
Corners won	6.78	2.71
Corners conceded	5.89	5.86
Match total	12.67	8.57	9.63
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.57
Opponent cards	1.30	1.86
Match total	3.40	4.43	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	57% 4/7

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.