LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel178 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
LE Havre—%
Draw—%
Paris FC—%
Weather (Le Havre)
Forecast from 16 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for LE Havre and Paris FC. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Paris FC
+0.62
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.77xG against1.15
-
Insight
Paris FC
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Paris FC
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
LE Havre
−0.64
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.95xG against1.59
-
Alert
LE Havre
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
LE Havre
3
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Paris FC
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Paris FC
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
LE Havre
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
LE Havre
−0.64
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.95xG against1.59
Team strength
LE HavreParis FC
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
20
AttackIn forecast
46
22
DefenceIn forecast
38
6
Form indexContext
73
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreParis FC
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.11
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
57%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
15.57
ShotsContext
14.43
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
30%
On target shareContext
35%
10.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
66%
Box shareContext
63%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.86
Shots allowedContext
9.57
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.67
BlocksContext
3.00
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
70%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
408
PassesContext
575
340
Accurate passesContext
508
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.57
FoulsContext
13.71
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
67%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.10
13.10
Shots allowedContext
9.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.78
BlocksContext
2.67
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
75%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
381
PassesContext
524
312
Accurate passesContext
457
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.70
FoulsContext
12.40
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
LDLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km332 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
Paris FC
WDWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 332 km | 1,176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Last XI · not confirmed
93G. Gallon(G)
5A. Touba
6J. Mwanga
20D. Ouziad
7M. Richardson
26S. Ebonog
14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta
9J. Maja
30S. Nakamura
Paris FC
Last XI · not confirmed
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré
42D. Coppola
31Samir Sophian Chergui
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
20M. Lopez
15L. Koleosho
7P. Pagis
10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Paris FC
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Paris FC · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 LE Havre wins1 draws1 Paris FC wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 22 Mar 2026Paris FC3–2LE Havre
- 7 Dec 2025LE Havre0–0Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.71 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| LE Havre | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 8.17 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 7/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 86% 6/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.86 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| LE Havre | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 8.11 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.20 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
LE Havre7 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
