Ligue 1 Gameweek 30 Sat, May 1 · 16:00 Stade de l’Aube, Troyes
Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel633 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Estac Troyes—%
Draw—%
Stade Brestois 29—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Troyes)

Forecast from 16 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Estac Troyes and Stade Brestois 29. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Estac TroyesStade Brestois 29
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
12 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
12 AttackIn forecast 47
19 DefenceIn forecast 36
7 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estac Troyes

Attack—
Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estac TroyesStade Brestois 29
0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
2.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.55
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.69
43% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.29 ShotsContext 17.14
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86
21% On target shareContext 34%
10.43 Shots in the boxContext 11.29
73% Box shareContext 63%
5% ConversionContext 11%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.40
12.43 Shots allowedContext 11.71
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
3.00 BlocksContext 2.57
2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
55% Save rateContext 76%
39% PossessionIn forecast 46%
359 PassesContext 408
287 Accurate passesContext 333
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.52 Team ratingContext 6.83
12.29 FoulsContext 14.14
12.71 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
60% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.10 ShotsContext 16.10
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
25% On target shareContext 33%
8.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.70
64% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 9%
2.56 OffsidesContext 2.43
13.90 Shots allowedContext 12.30
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.10 BlocksContext 3.30
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
63% Save rateContext 71%
39% PossessionIn forecast 46%
351 PassesContext 414
279 Accurate passesContext 340
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.61 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.10 FoulsContext 12.80
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estac Troyes
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km854 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts
Stade Brestois 29
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel633 km1,543 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
  • W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Estac Troyes Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km633 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways854 km1,543 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim 8M. Diop
23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Estac Troyes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Stade Brestois 29 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estac Troyes · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.75
Conceded
2.75
Stade Brestois 29 · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentEstac TroyesStade Brestois 29
Angers L 0–2 A W 5–1 H
Lille L 0–2 A D 1–1 A
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Estac Troyes wins2 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.50 Over 2.575% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 19 Mar 2023Estac Troyes2–2Stade Brestois 29
  • 13 Nov 2022Stade Brestois 292–1Estac Troyes
  • 13 Feb 2022Stade Brestois 295–1Estac Troyes
  • 22 Dec 2021Estac Troyes1–1Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Estac TroyesStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 0.711.86
Conceded per game 2.291.43
Match goals 3.003.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 43%71%
Over 3.5 29%43%
Both teams scored 43%86%
Clean sheets 14%0%
Failed to score 57%14%
Games77
Estac TroyesStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 0.711.50
Conceded per game 2.291.40
Match goals 3.002.90
Over 1.5 86%80%
Over 2.5 43%60%
Over 3.5 29%30%
Both teams scored 43%80%
Clean sheets 14%0%
Failed to score 57%20%
Games710

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Estac TroyesStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won6.504.86
Corners conceded2.504.00
Match total9.008.869.63
Over 8.550% 3/671% 5/7
Over 9.533% 2/643% 3/7
Over 10.517% 1/629% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.571.29
Opponent cards1.291.71
Match total2.863.003.47
Over 3.543% 3/714% 1/7
Over 4.529% 2/714% 1/7
Estac TroyesStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won5.334.70
Corners conceded4.784.60
Match total10.119.309.63
Over 8.567% 6/980% 8/10
Over 9.556% 5/940% 4/10
Over 10.522% 2/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.401.00
Opponent cards1.601.40
Match total3.002.403.47
Over 3.550% 5/1010% 1/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Estac Troyes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
5 46-60
61-75
1 5 76-90
Stade Brestois 297 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3 2 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 5 31-45
6 46-60
2 61-75
1 6 76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Paris Saint Germain Angers May 116:00 Monaco Lorient May 116:00 Rennes Nice May 116:00 Strasbourg Lille May 116:00 Toulouse Marseille May 116:00 Auxerre Lyon May 116:00 Estac Troyes Stade Brestois 29 May 116:00 LE Havre Paris FC May 116:00 Lens Le Mans May 116:00