Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
5th · 14 pts · 7 played
WDWWW
2–0Full time
SC Freiburg
11th · 9 pts · 7 played
WWDDD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 57). Absences weigh more on Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen had 8 days of rest, SC Freiburg 2.8 and had to travel 343 km.
Away travel343 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen59%
Draw22%
SC Freiburg19%
Bayer Leverkusen59%
Draw23%
SC Freiburg18%
Bayer Leverkusen61%
Draw22%
SC Freiburg17%
Bayer Leverkusen52%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg24%
Bayer Leverkusen57%
Draw24%
SC Freiburg19%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 88
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
87
AttackIn forecast
63
79
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.14
ShotsContext
11.57
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
41%
On target shareContext
31%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
65%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.86
Shots allowedContext
11.43
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.33
BlocksContext
3.43
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
63%
Save rateContext
63%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
562
PassesContext
404
491
Accurate passesContext
324
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.71
FoulsContext
9.14
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
13.43
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
12.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
66%
Box shareContext
70%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.90
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.67
BlocksContext
3.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
57%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
535
PassesContext
403
468
Accurate passesContext
324
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.00
FoulsContext
10.10
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel343 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 343 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 297 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
6E. Fernández
24Aleix García
13Arthur
19E. Poku
7J. Hofmann
35Christian Kofane
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
9L. Höler
29P. Treu
20C. Adamu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-1.6 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
SC Freiburg · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Bayer Leverkusen wins2 draws2 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.63
Over 2.588%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 May 2025SC Freiburg2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 21 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–1SC Freiburg
- 17 Mar 2024SC Freiburg2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 29 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg
- 26 Feb 2023SC Freiburg1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 3 Sep 2022Bayer Leverkusen2–3SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 3.14 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 71% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.86 | 2.90 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 8.80 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.14 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.71 | 2.86 | |
| Match total | 6.85 | 5.00 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 7/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.76 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.40 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 4.24
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+41%league 43%
Fouls22.3league 22.5
Penalties0.30league 0.40
Home wins51%league 41%
Bayer Leverkusen5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W18 Jan 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
- W14 Apr 24H · Werder Bremen5–02
- W17 Mar 24A · SC Freiburg3–20
- W17 Feb 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–11
- W22 Jan 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–22
SC Freiburg9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D2 Mar 25A · FC Augsburg0–01
- L17 Mar 24H · Bayer Leverkusen2–31
- L9 Feb 24A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- W17 Dec 23H · 1.FC Köln2–01
- W1 Oct 23H · FC Augsburg2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen7 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
SC Freiburg7 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
