Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 26 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 5th · 14 pts · 7 played
2–0Full time
SC Freiburg 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Bayer Leverkusen59.4%fair odds 1.68
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.52
SC Freiburg18.5%fair odds 5.41
Expected goals2.02 – 1.05total 3.07
Likeliest score1–110.4%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Bayer Leverkusen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

SC Freiburg

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · SC Freiburg →0123456+
05.24.32.50.90.20.00.0
18.810.45.21.80.50.10.0
29.59.95.21.80.50.10.0
36.46.73.51.20.30.10.0
43.23.41.80.60.20.00.0
51.31.40.70.30.10.00.0
6+0.60.60.30.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns SC Freiburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.4%9.66
  • 2–19.9%10.06
  • 2–09.5%10.55
  • 1–08.8%11.30
  • 3–16.7%14.91
  • 3–06.4%15.64
  • 2–25.2%19.17
  • 1–25.2%19.39
  • 0–05.2%19.42
  • 0–14.3%23.06

Winning margin

18.1% Bayer Leverkusen by 3+ fair 5.52
18.2% Bayer Leverkusen by 2 fair 5.48
23.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 1 fair 4.35
22.1% Draw fair 4.52
11.7% SC Freiburg by 1 fair 8.56
4.9% SC Freiburg by 2 fair 20.39
1.9% SC Freiburg by 3+ fair 52.27

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+

Bayer Leverkusen goals

13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+

SC Freiburg goals

35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Bayer Leverkusen win 59.4% 57.5% +1.9 pp
Draw 22.1% 23.6% -1.5 pp
SC Freiburg win 18.5% 18.9% -0.4 pp
Over 2.5 59.3% 53.6% +5.7 pp
Both teams score 56.9% 53.0% +3.9 pp
Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 1.85 +0.17
Expected goals SC Freiburg 1.05 0.97 +0.08

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Bayer Leverkusen win59.4%1.68
  • Draw22.1%4.52
  • SC Freiburg win18.5%5.41
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw81.5%1.23
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or SC Freiburg77.9%1.28
  • Double chance SC Freiburg or draw40.6%2.46
  • Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen76.2%1.31
  • Draw no bet SC Freiburg23.8%4.21

Goals

  • Over 0.594.8%1.05
  • Over 1.581.7%1.22
  • Over 2.559.3%1.69
  • Over 3.536.9%2.71
  • Over 4.519.7%5.07
  • Under 1.518.3%5.45
  • Under 2.540.7%2.46
  • Under 3.563.1%1.58

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.9%1.76
  • No43.1%2.32
  • Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
  • Bayer Leverkusen win and yes29.5%3.39
  • Draw and yes17.0%5.89
  • SC Freiburg win and yes10.4%9.59

Team goals

  • Bayer Leverkusen over 0.586.8%1.15
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 1.560.0%1.67
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 2.533.0%3.03
  • SC Freiburg over 0.565.0%1.54
  • SC Freiburg over 1.528.2%3.54
  • SC Freiburg over 2.59.0%11.16
  • Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet35.0%2.86
  • SC Freiburg clean sheet13.2%7.56
  • Bayer Leverkusen win to nil29.9%3.35
  • SC Freiburg win to nil8.1%12.39

Handicap

  • Bayer Leverkusen −1.536.4%2.75
  • Bayer Leverkusen −2.518.1%5.52
  • SC Freiburg +1.563.6%1.57
  • SC Freiburg +2.581.9%1.22
  • SC Freiburg −1.56.8%14.67
  • Bayer Leverkusen +1.593.2%1.07

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored70 Favourite won57.1% Avg chance given to result44.0% 1X2 Brier0.540 Over 2.5 called right62.9% BTTS called right54.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1238.2%50.0%
40–50%2145.0%38.1%
50–60%1554.4%53.3%
60–70%1466.0%85.7%
70–80%773.5%71.4%
80%+187.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 52 of 70 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.50550.5165
Avg chance given to result45.6%44.5%
Favourite won61.5%61.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 52 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 70 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.