Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
7th · 8 pts · 5 played
LDWDW
2–0Full time
Union Berlin
11th · 7 pts · 5 played
WLLWD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 42). Bayer Leverkusen usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, Union Berlin 5.8 and had to travel 472 km.
Away travel472 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen70%
Draw19%
Union Berlin12%
Bayer Leverkusen69%
Draw19%
Union Berlin12%
Bayer Leverkusen71%
Draw18%
Union Berlin11%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
Draw22%
Union Berlin16%
Bayer Leverkusen67%
Draw20%
Union Berlin13%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 59
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
87
AttackIn forecast
42
79
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenUnion Berlin
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.00
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
52%
On target shareContext
32%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
65%
Box shareContext
74%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.20
2.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
64%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
32%
514
PassesContext
266
446
Accurate passesContext
187
87%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.20
FoulsContext
13.60
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
100%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
10.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
45%
On target shareContext
33%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
61%
Box shareContext
74%
18%
ConversionContext
16%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.56
BlocksContext
3.33
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
60%
Save rateContext
62%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
527
PassesContext
296
457
Accurate passesContext
217
87%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.70
FoulsContext
11.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union Berlin
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel472 km847 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 694 km | 847 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
21Lucas Vázquez
19E. Poku
10M. Tillman
35Christian Kofane
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
13A. Schäfer
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Union Berlin+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Union Berlin · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 H | L 2–4 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Bayer Leverkusen wins4 draws0 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game1.88 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 25%
- 12 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–0Union Berlin
- 30 Nov 2024Union Berlin1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 6 Apr 2024Union Berlin0–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 Nov 2023Bayer Leverkusen4–0Union Berlin
- 29 Apr 2023Union Berlin0–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 6 Nov 2022Bayer Leverkusen5–0Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.80 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.11 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.70 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.28
Red cards0.12league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 46%
Fouls23.4league 22.9
Penalties0.32league 0.50
Home wins34%league 37%
Bayer Leverkusen7 with this referee
Record7-0-0
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W26 Apr 25H · FC Augsburg2–00
- W30 Nov 24A · Union Berlin2–12
- W5 May 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt5–10
- W17 Dec 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–01
- W24 Sep 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim4–11
Union Berlin6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Nov 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–24
- W18 May 24H · SC Freiburg2–17
- L2 Mar 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–22
- D13 Jan 24A · SC Freiburg0–02
- L20 May 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–45
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen5 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Union Berlin5 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 17 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
