Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 51 pts · 20 played
WWWLD
5–1Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 42 pts · 20 played
WWWWW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1899 Hoffenheim. Bayern München had 8 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 8.1 and had to travel 234 km.
Away travel234 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Bayern München73%
Draw16%
1899 Hoffenheim10%
Bayern München72%
Draw18%
1899 Hoffenheim10%
Bayern München72%
Draw17%
1899 Hoffenheim11%
Bayern München66%
Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim15%
Bayern München70%
Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim12%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 98
Team strength
Bayern München1899 Hoffenheim
93
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
96
AttackIn forecast
46
90
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern München1899 Hoffenheim
3.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.15
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
2.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+1.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
100%
Scored inContext
85%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.20
ShotsContext
12.60
8.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
45%
On target shareContext
37%
12.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
70%
Box shareContext
68%
20%
ConversionContext
17%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.24
9.40
Shots allowedContext
12.10
2.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
3.38
BlocksContext
3.84
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
68%
Save rateContext
77%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
705
PassesContext
457
637
Accurate passesContext
367
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.25
FoulsContext
14.20
8.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.45
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
2.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.00
ShotsContext
12.80
8.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
47%
On target shareContext
37%
12.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
71%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
17%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.11
9.40
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.57
BlocksContext
4.11
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
72%
Save rateContext
81%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
728
PassesContext
475
661
Accurate passesContext
382
91%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.40
FoulsContext
13.50
7.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel234 km850 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 234 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,224 km | 850 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
19A. Davies
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
21A. Hajdari
5O. Kabak
25K. Akpoguma
34V. Coufal
29B. Toure
6G. Prömel
27A. Kramarić
7L. Avdullahu
22A. Prass
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.90
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
2.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-1
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 5–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 48 of 57 · 2.53 per game | 42 of 57 · 2.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Bayern München wins2 draws1 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.89 – 0.78
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets56% · 0%
- 20 Sep 20251899 Hoffenheim1–4Bayern München
- 17 May 20251899 Hoffenheim0–4Bayern München
- 15 Jan 2025Bayern München5–01899 Hoffenheim
- 18 May 20241899 Hoffenheim4–2Bayern München
- 12 Jan 2024Bayern München3–01899 Hoffenheim
- 15 Apr 2023Bayern München1–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.70 | 2.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 3.30 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 65% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 65% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Bayern München | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 5.10 | 2.90 | 3.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.94 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 10.30 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 10/18 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.45 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 9/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 20% 4/20 | |
| Bayern München | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 9.60 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.74
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+33%league 38%
Fouls22.1league 21.0
Penalties0.31league 0.35
Home wins52%league 44%
Bayern München8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W6 Dec 25A · VfB Stuttgart5–04
- W13 Sep 25H · Hamburger SV5–02
- W19 Oct 24H · VfB Stuttgart4–00
- W3 Feb 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
- W17 Dec 23H · VfB Stuttgart3–00
1899 Hoffenheim7 with this referee
Record1-1-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L8 Feb 25H · Union Berlin0–42
- W24 Aug 24H · Holstein Kiel3–22
- L26 Apr 24A · VfL Bochum2–31
- L13 May 23A · VfL Wolfsburg1–22
- L29 Apr 23A · RB Leipzig0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München20 games · scored 74 · conceded 18
6
3
0-15
12
3
16-30
13
3
31-45
8
2
46-60
11
2
61-75
24
5
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim20 games · scored 43 · conceded 23
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
12
2
31-45
9
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 32 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
2
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
