Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 50 pts · 18 played
DWWWW
1–2Full time
FC Augsburg
15th · 16 pts · 18 played
LDLDD
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 37). Bayern München usually keep the ball (67% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayern München had 6.9 days of rest, FC Augsburg 5.9 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Bayern München90%
Draw7%
FC Augsburg3%
Bayern München86%
Draw10%
FC Augsburg4%
Bayern München89%
Draw8%
FC Augsburg3%
Bayern München85%
Draw10%
FC Augsburg5%
Bayern München87%
Draw9%
FC Augsburg4%
Over 2.5 81%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 20
Team strength
Bayern MünchenFC Augsburg
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
96
AttackIn forecast
72
90
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenFC Augsburg
3.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.94
2.65
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+1.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
18.72
ShotsContext
12.00
8.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
45%
On target shareContext
32%
13.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.41
71%
Box shareContext
62%
21%
ConversionContext
9%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.41
8.78
Shots allowedContext
13.11
2.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.47
3.29
BlocksContext
4.31
1.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
73%
Save rateContext
55%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
700
PassesContext
395
631
Accurate passesContext
316
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.22
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.89
FoulsContext
11.50
8.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.39
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.78
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
100%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.20
ShotsContext
12.60
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
44%
On target shareContext
32%
14.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
75%
Box shareContext
67%
20%
ConversionContext
6%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.10
8.60
Shots allowedContext
13.20
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.83
BlocksContext
4.89
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
76%
Save rateContext
54%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
731
PassesContext
394
663
Accurate passesContext
316
91%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.78
7.70
FoulsContext
10.50
7.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,633 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
FC Augsburg
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel56 km895 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,633 km | 895 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
21H. Ito
3M. Kim
4J. Tah
19A. Davies
8L. Goretzka
45A. Pavlović
14L. Díaz
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
34Arthur Chaves
13D. Giannoulis
8E. Rexhbeçaj
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
30A. Kade
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- FC Augsburg-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 4.33
- Conceded
- 0.78
FC Augsburg · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | L 0–6 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 5–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 4–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 5–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 47 of 51 · 2.76 per game | 16 of 51 · 0.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Bayern München wins0 draws2 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.44 – 1.33
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 30 Aug 2025FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München
- 4 Apr 2025FC Augsburg1–3Bayern München
- 22 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0FC Augsburg
- 27 Jan 2024FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München
- 27 Aug 2023Bayern München3–1FC Augsburg
- 11 Mar 2023Bayern München5–3FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.94 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.94 | |
| Match goals | 4.72 | 3.06 | 4.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 61% | 81% |
| Over 3.5 | 78% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Bayern München | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.10 | 2.30 | 4.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 81% |
| Over 3.5 | 90% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.69 | 4.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 8.84 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.39 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 4.72 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Bayern München | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 8.90 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.90league 3.78
Red cards0.25league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls22.7league 21.2
Penalties0.30league 0.31
Home wins40%league 45%
Bayern München5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Nov 25A · Union Berlin2–23
- W30 Aug 25A · FC Augsburg3–24
- D15 Mar 25A · Union Berlin1–12
- W1 Feb 25H · Holstein Kiel4–31
- W27 Oct 24A · VfL Bochum5–01
FC Augsburg3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Aug 25H · Bayern München2–33
- W22 Feb 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–02
- L7 Apr 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München18 games · scored 71 · conceded 14
6
3
0-15
11
3
16-30
12
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
11
1
61-75
24
4
76-90
FC Augsburg18 games · scored 20 · conceded 35
3
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
15
1
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
