Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 50 pts · 18 played
DWWWW
1–2Full time
FC Augsburg
15th · 16 pts · 18 played
LDLDD
Bayern München89.9%fair odds 1.11
Draw7.2%fair odds 13.80
FC Augsburg2.9%fair odds 34.49
Expected goals3.68 – 0.65total 4.33
Likeliest score3–011.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · FC Augsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 8.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.0%9.12
- 4–010.1%9.90
- 2–08.9%11.20
- 5–07.4%13.44
- 3–17.1%14.07
- 4–16.5%15.27
- 2–15.8%17.27
- 5–14.8%20.73
- 1–04.7%21.36
- 6–04.6%21.90
Winning margin
58.0%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 1.72
18.5%
Bayern München by 2
fair 5.40
13.3%
Bayern München by 1
fair 7.52
7.2%
Draw
fair 13.80
2.2%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 45.40
0.6%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 174.16
0.1%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 815.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
5%1
13%2
18%3
19%4
43%5+
Bayern München goals
3%0
9%1
17%2
21%3
50%4+
FC Augsburg goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 89.9% | 87.0% | +2.8 pp |
| Draw | 7.2% | 9.3% | -2.1 pp |
| FC Augsburg win | 2.9% | 3.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 73.4% | +7.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.7% | 43.2% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 3.68 | 3.23 | +0.46 |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 0.65 | 0.59 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win89.9%1.11
- Draw7.2%13.80
- FC Augsburg win2.9%34.49
- Double chance Bayern München or draw97.1%1.03
- Double chance Bayern München or FC Augsburg92.8%1.08
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw10.1%9.85
- Draw no bet Bayern München96.9%1.03
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg3.1%31.99
Goals
- Over 0.598.5%1.02
- Over 1.593.2%1.07
- Over 2.580.6%1.24
- Over 3.562.8%1.59
- Over 4.543.5%2.30
- Under 1.56.8%14.60
- Under 2.519.4%5.16
- Under 3.537.2%2.69
Both teams to score
- Yes46.7%2.14
- No53.3%1.88
- Yes and over 2.543.4%2.31
- Bayern München win and yes39.0%2.56
- Draw and yes5.8%17.34
- FC Augsburg win and yes1.9%53.61
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.597.5%1.03
- Bayern München over 1.588.2%1.13
- Bayern München over 2.571.1%1.41
- FC Augsburg over 0.547.7%2.10
- FC Augsburg over 1.513.8%7.24
- FC Augsburg over 2.52.8%35.50
- Bayern München clean sheet52.3%1.91
- FC Augsburg clean sheet2.5%39.74
- Bayern München win to nil50.8%1.97
- FC Augsburg win to nil1.0%96.70
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.576.6%1.31
- Bayern München −2.558.0%1.72
- FC Augsburg +1.523.4%4.27
- FC Augsburg +2.542.0%2.38
- FC Augsburg −1.50.7%143.50
- Bayern München +1.599.3%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored160
Favourite won55.0%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right56.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.2% | 44.0% |
| 40–50% | 49 | 45.1% | 38.8% |
| 50–60% | 42 | 55.0% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 65.1% | 76.0% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.3% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 86.1% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 140 of 160 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5531 | 0.5458 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 56.4% | 55.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 140 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 160 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.