Bundesliga Gameweek 22 Sat, Feb 20 · 14:30 Fußball Arena München, München
Bayern München 1st · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel56 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bayern München—%
Draw—%
FC Augsburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (München)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bayern München and FC Augsburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Bayern MünchenFC Augsburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
96 AttackIn forecast 72
90 DefenceIn forecast 23
78 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern MünchenFC Augsburg
3.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
3.57 xGVia Att/Def 2.15
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.95
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
83% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 17%
24.17 ShotsContext 15.67
10.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
43% On target shareContext 45%
14.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
61% Box shareContext 72%
15% ConversionContext 17%
2.67 OffsidesContext 1.75
7.67 Shots allowedContext 21.83
2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
3.00 BlocksContext 6.17
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
75% Save rateContext 70%
69% PossessionIn forecast 42%
706 PassesContext 372
635 Accurate passesContext 288
90% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.39 Team ratingContext 7.01
10.50 FoulsContext 9.83
9.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
0.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
3.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
22.80 ShotsContext 15.10
9.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
43% On target shareContext 42%
13.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
59% Box shareContext 72%
16% ConversionContext 15%
2.90 OffsidesContext 1.88
8.10 Shots allowedContext 19.20
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
3.50 BlocksContext 5.50
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
70% Save rateContext 71%
68% PossessionIn forecast 41%
693 PassesContext 356
625 Accurate passesContext 274
90% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.30 Team ratingContext 6.95
8.60 FoulsContext 9.20
8.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
0.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · RB Leipzig6–12.4 xPts
  • D13 OctA · Viking3–32.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · FC Augsburg2–22.4 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Union Berlin7–02.8 xPts
  • W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel56 km816 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km56 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,010 km816 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs RB Leipzig (H) 6–1, 17 Oct
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 34I. Saibari 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.67
FC Augsburg · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBayern MünchenFC Augsburg
SV Elversberg W 2–1 A L 3–4 A
FC Schalke 04 D 0–0 A W 3–0 H
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

7 Bayern München wins1 draws2 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.40 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%
  • 10 Oct 2026FC Augsburg2–2Bayern München
  • 24 Jan 2026Bayern München1–2FC Augsburg
  • 30 Aug 2025FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München
  • 4 Apr 2025FC Augsburg1–3Bayern München
  • 22 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0FC Augsburg
  • 27 Jan 2024FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Bayern MünchenFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 3.672.67
Conceded per game 0.832.00
Match goals 4.504.67
Over 1.5 83%100%
Over 2.5 83%100%
Over 3.5 67%83%
Both teams scored 67%83%
Clean sheets 33%17%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
Bayern MünchenFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 3.602.30
Conceded per game 0.901.90
Match goals 4.504.20
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 80%90%
Over 3.5 70%80%
Both teams scored 60%80%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern MünchenFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won9.406.00
Corners conceded3.206.83
Match total12.6012.8310.72
Over 8.5100% 5/583% 5/6
Over 9.5100% 5/583% 5/6
Over 10.5100% 5/583% 5/6
Cards
Cards0.831.83
Opponent cards2.171.50
Match total3.003.333.51
Over 3.550% 3/633% 2/6
Over 4.50% 0/617% 1/6
Bayern MünchenFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won8.445.80
Corners conceded3.786.10
Match total12.2211.9010.72
Over 8.5100% 9/980% 8/10
Over 9.578% 7/980% 8/10
Over 10.567% 6/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.001.60
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total2.903.303.51
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.510% 1/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bayern München6 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
3 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
FC Augsburg6 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 5 76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
5 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
10 1 46-60
7 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Augsburg Feb 2014:30 Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund Feb 2014:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.FC Köln Feb 2014:30 Bayer Leverkusen FSV Mainz 05 Feb 2014:30 Eintracht Frankfurt RB Leipzig Feb 2014:30 VfB Stuttgart SC Paderborn 07 Feb 2014:30 FC Schalke 04 SC Freiburg Feb 2014:30 Hamburger SV 1899 Hoffenheim Feb 2014:30 SV Elversberg Union Berlin Feb 2014:30