SV Elversberg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel566 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
SV Elversberg—%
Draw—%
Union Berlin—%
Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)
Forecast from 5 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for SV Elversberg and Union Berlin. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
SV Elversberg
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
SV Elversberg
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Union Berlin
−0.69
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.31xG against2.00
-
Alert
Union Berlin
2.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
SV Elversberg
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Union Berlin
2.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Union Berlin
−0.69
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.31xG against2.00
-
Alert
SV Elversberg
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
SV ElversbergUnion Berlin
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
42
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
44
AttackIn forecast
42
37
DefenceIn forecast
41
60
Form indexContext
38
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SV ElversbergUnion Berlin
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.83
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
2.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.09
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
67%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.17
ShotsContext
12.83
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
42%
On target shareContext
35%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
72%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
7%
3.20
OffsidesContext
2.60
22.00
Shots allowedContext
15.67
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
8.50
BlocksContext
4.20
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
59%
Save rateContext
56%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
382
PassesContext
359
303
Accurate passesContext
268
80%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.58
11.67
FoulsContext
11.67
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.94
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.88
38%
On target shareContext
38%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
66%
Box shareContext
63%
21%
ConversionContext
12%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.43
16.90
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
6.33
BlocksContext
4.13
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
59%
Save rateContext
57%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
387
PassesContext
372
309
Accurate passesContext
285
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.50
FoulsContext
10.30
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SV Elversberg
WLDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km702 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Union Berlin
LLLWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel566 km893 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SV Elversberg |
Union Berlin |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 566 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 702 km | 893 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SV Elversberg
Last XI · not confirmed
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther
31M. Rohr
19L. Pinckert
30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba
43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher
10N. Darvich
25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
Union Berlin
Last XI · not confirmed
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe
2O. Uduokhai
4Z. Van Den Bosch
19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer
20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri
11W. Jeong
8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SV Elversberg
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union Berlin
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
SV Elversberg · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Union Berlin · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 5.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | SV Elversberg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 H | L 0–7 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 SV Elversberg wins0 draws1 Union Berlin wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 10 Oct 2026Union Berlin1–0SV Elversberg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SV Elversberg | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 2.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 3.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SV Elversberg | Union Berlin | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 3.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SV Elversberg | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 11.67 | 9.83 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| SV Elversberg | Union Berlin | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.60 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
9
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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