Bundesliga Gameweek 22 Sat, Feb 20 · 14:30 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel328 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
VfB Stuttgart—%
Draw—%
SC Paderborn 07—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Stuttgart)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
70 AttackIn forecast 34
58 DefenceIn forecast 33
46 Form indexContext 33
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 0.90
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84
-0.58 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
67% Scored inContext 33%
17% Clean sheetsContext 17%
17.00 ShotsContext 13.50
5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25
34% On target shareContext 21%
12.17 Shots in the boxContext 7.67
72% Box shareContext 58%
8% ConversionContext 6%
1.60 OffsidesContext 1.20
18.17 Shots allowedContext 18.17
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33
5.00 BlocksContext 6.33
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67
63% Save rateContext 74%
55% PossessionIn forecast 46%
506 PassesContext 443
422 Accurate passesContext 357
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.88
9.83 FoulsContext 10.50
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.16
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
80% Scored inContext 50%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.80 ShotsContext 14.50
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
37% On target shareContext 26%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.38
70% Box shareContext 60%
11% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.33
15.50 Shots allowedContext 16.00
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
5.22 BlocksContext 5.11
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60
65% Save rateContext 79%
55% PossessionIn forecast 48%
502 PassesContext 451
422 Accurate passesContext 366
84% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.10 FoulsContext 10.80
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km655 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts
SC Paderborn 07
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel328 km549 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
VfB Stuttgart SC Paderborn 07
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km328 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways655 km549 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda
27S. Tigges 30S. Marino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
SC Paderborn 07 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
SC Paderborn 07 · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentVfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund L 0–1 H L 0–3 A
1899 Hoffenheim L 1–2 A W 3–1 H
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 VfB Stuttgart wins0 draws0 SC Paderborn 07 wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%
  • 10 Oct 2026SC Paderborn 070–2VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07Forecast
Scored per game 1.330.83
Conceded per game 1.671.50
Match goals 3.002.33
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 50%33%
Clean sheets 17%17%
Failed to score 33%67%
Games66
VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07Forecast
Scored per game 1.900.83
Conceded per game 1.401.50
Match goals 3.302.33
Over 1.5 80%67%
Over 2.5 70%50%
Over 3.5 50%33%
Both teams scored 60%33%
Clean sheets 20%17%
Failed to score 20%67%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07League
Corners
Corners won6.674.33
Corners conceded6.006.17
Match total12.6710.5010.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 10.583% 5/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.001.33
Opponent cards2.331.17
Match total3.332.503.51
Over 3.550% 3/617% 1/6
Over 4.517% 1/617% 1/6
VfB StuttgartSC Paderborn 07League
Corners
Corners won6.305.10
Corners conceded5.404.70
Match total11.709.8010.72
Over 8.590% 9/1060% 6/10
Over 9.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 10.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.401.70
Opponent cards2.102.00
Match total3.503.703.51
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
SC Paderborn 076 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München FC Augsburg Feb 2014:30 Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund Feb 2014:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.FC Köln Feb 2014:30 Bayer Leverkusen FSV Mainz 05 Feb 2014:30 Eintracht Frankfurt RB Leipzig Feb 2014:30 VfB Stuttgart SC Paderborn 07 Feb 2014:30 FC Schalke 04 SC Freiburg Feb 2014:30 Hamburger SV 1899 Hoffenheim Feb 2014:30 SV Elversberg Union Berlin Feb 2014:30