Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 76 pts · 29 played
WDWWW
4–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 56 pts · 29 played
DWWLW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for VfB Stuttgart. Bayern München had 8 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 7 and had to travel 191 km.
Away travel191 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bayern München78%
Draw12%
VfB Stuttgart10%
Bayern München74%
Draw17%
VfB Stuttgart9%
Bayern München78%
Draw12%
VfB Stuttgart10%
Bayern München70%
Draw15%
VfB Stuttgart15%
Bayern München75%
Draw15%
VfB Stuttgart11%
Over 2.5 86%
Both score 71%
Likeliest score 3–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 31
Team strength
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
95
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
96
AttackIn forecast
70
90
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
3.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
2.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.90
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
90%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
18.62
ShotsContext
14.90
8.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.83
45%
On target shareContext
39%
12.79
Shots in the boxContext
9.86
69%
Box shareContext
66%
19%
ConversionContext
14%
2.32
OffsidesContext
2.46
9.62
Shots allowedContext
11.62
2.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.24
3.20
BlocksContext
3.07
2.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.19
71%
Save rateContext
72%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
690
PassesContext
520
623
Accurate passesContext
439
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.03
FoulsContext
9.69
8.76
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
3.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
3.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
20.40
ShotsContext
16.20
8.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
40%
On target shareContext
41%
13.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
68%
Box shareContext
65%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.60
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.00
BlocksContext
1.63
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
79%
Save rateContext
66%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
691
PassesContext
548
625
Accurate passesContext
460
91%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.24
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.40
FoulsContext
9.70
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,224 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel191 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 191 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,224 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
19A. Davies
21H. Ito
3M. Kim
44J. Stanišić
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
10J. Musiala
22R. Guerreiro
11N. Jackson
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
10C. Führich
11B. El Khannouss
8Tiago Tomás
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- VfB Stuttgart+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.93
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.50points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | W 5–0 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–2 AW 6–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Union Berlin | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | W 4–0 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 73 of 84 · 2.61 per game | 56 of 84 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Bayern München wins2 draws1 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 0%
- 6 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart0–5Bayern München
- 28 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–3Bayern München
- 19 Oct 2024Bayern München4–0VfB Stuttgart
- 4 May 2024VfB Stuttgart3–1Bayern München
- 17 Dec 2023Bayern München3–0VfB Stuttgart
- 4 Mar 2023VfB Stuttgart1–2Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.62 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 4.55 | 3.38 | 4.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 97% | 72% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 | 76% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 55% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 86% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.96 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.25 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 15/27 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 9/27 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 1.69 | |
| Match total | 3.55 | 3.62 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 13/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.00 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 3.74
Red cards0.23league 0.18
Cards 5+58%league 38%
Fouls21.4league 20.4
Penalties0.26league 0.37
Home wins42%league 44%
Bayern München2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W7 Feb 25H · Werder Bremen3–01
- W7 Dec 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim4–21
VfB Stuttgart2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W25 Jan 26A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–01
- L30 Nov 25A · Hamburger SV1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München29 games · scored 105 · conceded 27
7
4
0-15
17
4
16-30
19
4
31-45
13
3
46-60
18
3
61-75
31
9
76-90
VfB Stuttgart29 games · scored 60 · conceded 38
4
4
0-15
10
4
16-30
13
8
31-45
8
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
20
16
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 36 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
9
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
