Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 76 pts · 29 played
WDWWW
4–2Full time
VfB Stuttgart
4th · 56 pts · 29 played
DWWLW
Bayern München78.1%fair odds 1.28
Draw12.1%fair odds 8.25
VfB Stuttgart9.8%fair odds 10.24
Expected goals3.50 – 1.30total 4.80
Likeliest score3–17.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–17.7%13.07
- 4–16.7%14.93
- 2–16.6%15.25
- 3–05.9%17.00
- 4–05.1%19.42
- 2–05.0%19.84
- 3–25.0%20.10
- 5–14.7%21.33
- 4–24.4%22.96
- 2–24.3%23.45
Winning margin
42.9%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 2.33
18.7%
Bayern München by 2
fair 5.36
16.6%
Bayern München by 1
fair 6.02
12.1%
Draw
fair 8.25
6.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 16.55
2.6%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 38.84
1.1%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 87.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
4%1
10%2
15%3
18%4
52%5+
Bayern München goals
3%0
11%1
19%2
22%3
46%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 78.1% | 74.6% | +3.5 pp |
| Draw | 12.1% | 14.5% | -2.4 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 9.8% | 10.9% | -1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 85.7% | 77.7% | +8.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 70.8% | 64.3% | +6.5 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 3.50 | 2.98 | +0.52 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.30 | 1.12 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win78.1%1.28
- Draw12.1%8.25
- VfB Stuttgart win9.8%10.24
- Double chance Bayern München or draw90.2%1.11
- Double chance Bayern München or VfB Stuttgart87.9%1.14
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw21.9%4.57
- Draw no bet Bayern München88.9%1.12
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart11.1%9.00
Goals
- Over 0.599.0%1.01
- Over 1.595.4%1.05
- Over 2.585.7%1.17
- Over 3.570.6%1.42
- Over 4.552.4%1.91
- Under 1.54.6%21.86
- Under 2.514.3%7.02
- Under 3.529.4%3.40
Both teams to score
- Yes70.8%1.41
- No29.2%3.42
- Yes and over 2.566.8%1.50
- Bayern München win and yes51.9%1.93
- Draw and yes11.1%9.00
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes7.8%12.88
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.597.0%1.03
- Bayern München over 1.586.4%1.16
- Bayern München over 2.567.9%1.47
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.572.8%1.37
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.537.3%2.68
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.514.3%6.99
- Bayern München clean sheet27.2%3.67
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet3.0%33.11
- Bayern München win to nil26.2%3.81
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil2.0%50.02
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.561.5%1.63
- Bayern München −2.542.9%2.33
- VfB Stuttgart +1.538.5%2.60
- VfB Stuttgart +2.557.1%1.75
- VfB Stuttgart −1.53.7%26.90
- Bayern München +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored268
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right61.6%
BTTS called right58.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.3% | 37.1% |
| 40–50% | 85 | 45.0% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 71 | 55.1% | 59.2% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 64.7% | 70.7% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 73.9% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 12 | 86.6% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 221 of 268 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5534 | 0.5513 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.5% | 56.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 221 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 268 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.