Benfica vs Famalicao – 22 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 15 Mon, Dec 22 · 20:45 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 32 pts · 14 played WDWDW

1–0Full time

Famalicao 6th · 23 pts · 14 played WLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 40). Benfica had 8.1 days of rest, Famalicao 8.2 and had to travel 303 km.

Away travel303 kmRest days8.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Benfica69%

Draw20%

Famalicao12%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.77

Benfica70%

Draw19%

Famalicao11%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.80

Benfica69%

Draw20%

Famalicao12%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.77

Benfica62%

Draw23%

Famalicao16%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.86

Benfica70%

Draw19%

Famalicao11%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.80

Over 2.5 56% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

Benfica

Famalicao

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

81 AttackIn forecast 24

81 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Famalicao

2.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

0.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.64

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

93% Scored inContext 79%

50% Clean sheetsContext 57%

15.29 ShotsContext 12.93

5.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.69

37% On target shareContext 34%

9.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.07

63% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.80

8.64 Shots allowedContext 11.36

3.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.29 BlocksContext 2.85

2.85 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.36

86% Save rateContext 84%

59% PossessionIn forecast 50%

494 PassesContext 368

425 Accurate passesContext 295

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.29 FoulsContext 17.57

14.07 Fouls sufferedContext 16.36

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

80% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.00 ShotsContext 13.90

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

36% On target shareContext 34%

9.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

62% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.88

8.00 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.40 BlocksContext 2.70

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

79% Save rateContext 78%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

459 PassesContext 371

391 Accurate passesContext 297

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.00 FoulsContext 17.40

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km608 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel303 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec	8.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	303 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	608 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 44Tomás Araújo 17A. Dedić

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

10H. Sudakov 8F. Aursnes 25G. Prestianni

14V. Pavlidis

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

21M. Zabiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-0
Scored: 2.14
Conceded: 0.86

Famalicao · Away 2.00points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-0
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Benfica	Famalicao
Moreirense	W 4–0 A	D 2–2 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Nacional	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Casa Pia	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Guimaraes	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Arouca	W 5–0 H	D 1–1 A
FC Porto	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
GIL Vicente	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Rio Ave	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
AVS	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 A
Santa Clara	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 H
Tondela	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	26 of 36 · 2.17 per game	20 of 36 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Benfica wins0 draws2 Famalicao wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored0% Clean sheets67% · 33%

17 Jan 2025Benfica4–0Famalicao
11 Aug 2024Famalicao2–0Benfica
5 May 2024Famalicao2–0Benfica
29 Dec 2023Benfica3–0Famalicao
3 Mar 2023Benfica2–0Famalicao
10 Sep 2022Famalicao0–1Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	2.14	1.29
Conceded per game	0.57	0.64
Match goals	2.71	1.93	2.93
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	64%	36%	56%
Over 3.5	21%	14%
Both teams scored	50%	36%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	57%
Failed to score	7%	21%
Games	14	14

	Benfica	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.30
Conceded per game	0.60	0.90
Match goals	2.90	2.20	2.93
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.77	5.29
Corners conceded	2.85	5.07
Match total	8.62	10.36	9.18
Over 8.5	54% 7/13	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	31% 4/13	50% 7/14
Over 10.5	23% 3/13	50% 7/14
Cards
Cards	2.57	3.07
Opponent cards	2.93	2.36
Match total	5.50	5.43	5.47
Over 3.5	79% 11/14	79% 11/14
Over 4.5	64% 9/14	57% 8/14

	Benfica	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.40
Corners conceded	4.33	5.20
Match total	10.11	10.60	9.18
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	3.20
Opponent cards	2.50	2.90
Match total	4.60	6.10	5.47
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.25league 5.14

Red cards0.25league 0.30

Cards 5+50%league 62%

Fouls29.8league 27.4

Penalties0.25league 0.45

Home wins75%league 36%

Benfica

No previous matches with this referee.

Famalicao1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 7.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L3 May 25A · Farense1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.