Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Benfica68.9%fair odds 1.45
Draw19.6%fair odds 5.10
Famalicao11.5%fair odds 8.69
Expected goals2.16 – 0.77total 2.93
Likeliest score2–012.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Famalicao
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Benfica ↓ · Famalicao → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Benfica goals, columns Famalicao goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.5%8.00
- 1–011.1%9.00
- 2–19.6%10.43
- 1–19.4%10.69
- 3–09.0%11.12
- 3–16.9%14.50
- 0–05.8%17.14
- 4–04.9%20.61
- 4–13.7%26.87
- 2–23.7%27.21
Winning margin
24.2%
Benfica by 3+
fair 4.14
21.0%
Benfica by 2
fair 4.76
23.7%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.21
19.6%
Draw
fair 5.10
8.1%
Famalicao by 1
fair 12.30
2.6%
Famalicao by 2
fair 37.74
0.7%
Famalicao by 3+
fair 137.90
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Benfica goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Famalicao goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 68.9% | 69.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 19.6% | 19.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Famalicao win | 11.5% | 11.5% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 58.5% | -2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.8% | 49.6% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Benfica | 2.16 | 2.24 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Famalicao | 0.77 | 0.80 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Benfica win68.9%1.45
- Draw19.6%5.10
- Famalicao win11.5%8.69
- Double chance Benfica or draw88.5%1.13
- Double chance Benfica or Famalicao80.4%1.24
- Double chance Famalicao or draw31.1%3.21
- Draw no bet Benfica85.7%1.17
- Draw no bet Famalicao14.3%6.99
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.4%1.26
- Over 2.556.0%1.79
- Over 3.533.6%2.98
- Over 4.517.2%5.80
- Under 1.520.6%4.86
- Under 2.544.0%2.27
- Under 3.566.4%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes47.8%2.09
- No52.2%1.92
- Yes and over 2.538.5%2.60
- Benfica win and yes28.3%3.54
- Draw and yes13.8%7.26
- Famalicao win and yes5.8%17.27
Team goals
- Benfica over 0.588.4%1.13
- Benfica over 1.563.5%1.57
- Benfica over 2.536.6%2.73
- Famalicao over 0.553.6%1.87
- Famalicao over 1.517.9%5.57
- Famalicao over 2.54.3%23.37
- Benfica clean sheet46.4%2.15
- Famalicao clean sheet11.6%8.66
- Benfica win to nil40.6%2.46
- Famalicao win to nil5.7%17.50
Handicap
- Benfica −1.545.2%2.21
- Benfica −2.524.2%4.14
- Famalicao +1.554.8%1.82
- Famalicao +2.575.8%1.32
- Famalicao −1.53.4%29.63
- Benfica +1.596.6%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored133
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result43.2%
1X2 Brier0.551
Over 2.5 called right61.7%
BTTS called right54.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 23 | 37.8% | 34.8% |
| 40–50% | 49 | 45.0% | 49.0% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.1% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 66.0% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 85.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 104 of 133 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5492 | 0.5285 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.2% | 45.4% |
| Favourite won | 57.7% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 104 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 133 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.