Bologna vs Brann – 26 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 · 20:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg1–0 1–0Full time

Brann 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brann. Bologna had 3 days of rest, Brann 7.1 and had to travel 1,812 km.

Away travel1,812 kmRest days3 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Bologna60%

Draw23%

Brann17%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.88

Bologna64%

Draw21%

Brann15%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.87

Bologna61%

Draw23%

Brann16%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.84

Bologna53%

Draw26%

Brann22%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.99

Bologna59%

Draw24%

Brann17%

Expected goals 1.78 – 0.85

Over 2.5 52% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 118

Team strength

Bologna

Brann

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

35 AttackIn forecast 21

48 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brann

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Brann

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.90 ShotsContext 11.40

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

31% On target shareContext 37%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

62% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.38

8.10 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

2.75 BlocksContext 3.56

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

62% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 49%

432 PassesContext 393

358 Accurate passesContext 305

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.20 FoulsContext 10.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,215 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brann

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,812 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Brann
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Feb	7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,812 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,215 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

17João Mário 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

6N. Moro 8R. Freuler 19L. Ferguson

11J. Rowe 9S. Castro 10F. Bernardeschi

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Brann Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1M. Dyngeland(G)

17J. Soltvedt 4N. Boakye 3F. Knudsen 21D. De Roeve

8F. Myhre 18J. Sørensen 10K. Ingason

16J. Þorsteinsson 29N. Holm 14U. Mathisen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brann Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Brann+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home No home games yet this season.

Brann · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Bologna wins1 draws0 Brann wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 50%

19 Feb 2026Brann0–1Bologna
6 Nov 2025Bologna0–0Brann

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Brann	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.74
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Bologna	Brann	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.33
Match goals	2.90	2.33	2.74
Over 1.5	70%	56%
Over 2.5	70%	44%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	22%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	33%
Failed to score	20%	44%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Brann	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.00
Corners conceded	7.00	4.00
Match total	11.00	11.00	10.55
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Bologna	Brann	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.80
Corners conceded	4.44	5.80
Match total	9.77	10.60	10.55
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.20
Opponent cards	1.50	1.90
Match total	3.20	3.10	4.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 118 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 4.00

Red cards0.21league 0.08

Cards 5+47%league 42%

Fouls24.5league 23.3

Penalties0.42league 0.00

Home wins53%league 17%

Bologna1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D29 Jan 25A · Sporting CP1–15

Brann

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.