Bologna vs Lazio – 22 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 30 Sun, Mar 22 · 14:00 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 8th · 42 pts · 29 played WWWLW

0–2Full time

Lazio 9th · 40 pts · 29 played LDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bologna come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Bologna had 2.8 days of rest, Lazio 6.8 and had to travel 305 km.

Away travel305 kmRest days2.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d4 · 2

Bologna40%

Draw30%

Lazio29%

Expected goals 1.21 – 0.99

Bologna46%

Draw26%

Lazio28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Bologna38%

Draw31%

Lazio31%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.01

Bologna34%

Draw31%

Lazio35%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.11

Bologna45%

Draw29%

Lazio27%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.01

Over 2.5 38% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 39

Team strength

Bologna

Lazio

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

35 AttackIn forecast 53

48 DefenceIn forecast 63

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Lazio

1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.97

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

76% Scored inContext 52%

31% Clean sheetsContext 45%

12.93 ShotsContext 10.93

3.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.93

29% On target shareContext 35%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.64

61% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.30 OffsidesContext 1.63

10.03 Shots allowedContext 13.21

3.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17

2.92 BlocksContext 3.59

2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.24

68% Save rateContext 78%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

423 PassesContext 477

349 Accurate passesContext 410

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.76 FoulsContext 9.97

14.31 Fouls sufferedContext 15.07

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

90% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 10.50

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

32% On target shareContext 30%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

64% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.86

9.30 Shots allowedContext 14.00

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.11 BlocksContext 4.80

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

64% Save rateContext 68%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

402 PassesContext 511

317 Accurate passesContext 444

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.80 FoulsContext 8.20

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km730 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lazio

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel305 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 43	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar	6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	305 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	730 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 4 / 7	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	13.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13F. Ravaglia(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

6N. Moro 23S. Sohm

11J. Rowe 10F. Bernardeschi 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40E. Motta(G)

17Nuno Tavares 13A. Romagnoli 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 4Patric 7O. Dele-Bashiru

9Pedro 27D. Maldini 18G. Isaksen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna+2.1 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Lazio-1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 1.21points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.14

Lazio · Away 1.07points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-5
Scored: 0.57
Conceded: 0.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Lazio
Sassuolo	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Verona	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
Pisa	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	D 0–0 A
Udinese	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Torino	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H
Parma	L 0–1 HW 3–1 A	W 1–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–3 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Genoa	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A
Fiorentina	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	D 2–2 H
Como	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Inter	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Juventus	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Cremonese	L 1–3 H	D 0–0 H
Napoli	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Lecce	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Points	41 of 84 · 1.46 per game	39 of 84 · 1.39 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Bologna wins2 draws3 Lazio wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.11 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets44% · 33%

7 Dec 2025Lazio1–1Bologna
16 Mar 2025Bologna5–0Lazio
24 Nov 2024Lazio3–0Bologna
18 Feb 2024Lazio1–2Bologna
3 Nov 2023Bologna1–0Lazio
11 Mar 2023Bologna0–0Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.31	1.00
Conceded per game	1.17	0.97
Match goals	2.48	1.97	2.20
Over 1.5	69%	59%
Over 2.5	48%	28%	38%
Over 3.5	28%	17%
Both teams scored	48%	24%	45%
Clean sheets	31%	45%
Failed to score	24%	48%
Games	29	29

	Bologna	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.90
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	2.10	2.10	2.20
Over 1.5	40%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	38%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	45%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	4.00
Corners conceded	4.39	4.08
Match total	8.82	8.08	8.73
Over 8.5	50% 14/28	46% 12/26
Over 9.5	39% 11/28	31% 8/26
Over 10.5	32% 9/28	12% 3/26
Cards
Cards	2.07	2.24
Opponent cards	2.14	2.83
Match total	4.21	5.07	3.93
Over 3.5	59% 17/29	76% 22/29
Over 4.5	48% 14/29	66% 19/29

	Bologna	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.20
Corners conceded	5.20	4.60
Match total	10.00	7.80	8.73
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.60
Match total	3.90	4.50	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.95league 3.75

Red cards0.03league 0.19

Cards 5+15%league 35%

Fouls22.9league 25.1

Penalties0.26league 0.30

Home wins54%league 40%

Bologna3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W2 Mar 26A · Pisa1–02
L1 Dec 25H · Cremonese1–30
W1 Apr 24H · Salernitana3–00

Lazio2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W19 Apr 24A · Genoa1–02
W29 Dec 23H · Frosinone3–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.