Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
4th · 14 pts · 7 played
WWWDL
1–0Full time
1.FC Köln
8th · 11 pts · 7 played
DLLWD
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 40). Borussia Dortmund had 7 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 7.1 and had to travel 74 km.
Away travel74 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund74%
Draw16%
1.FC Köln10%
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw18%
1.FC Köln10%
Borussia Dortmund74%
Draw16%
1.FC Köln10%
Borussia Dortmund67%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln14%
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw18%
1.FC Köln11%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 48
Team strength
Borussia Dortmund1.FC Köln
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
76
AttackIn forecast
36
79
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia Dortmund1.FC Köln
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
100%
Scored inContext
100%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.43
ShotsContext
12.29
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
40%
On target shareContext
35%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
72%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.80
10.00
Shots allowedContext
14.14
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.29
BlocksContext
4.86
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
77%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
530
PassesContext
389
457
Accurate passesContext
314
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.43
FoulsContext
9.29
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.95
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
14.50
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
44%
On target shareContext
35%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
67%
Box shareContext
62%
23%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.80
10.50
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
2.89
BlocksContext
4.78
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
529
PassesContext
405
454
Accurate passesContext
323
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.90
FoulsContext
11.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km955 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel74 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 74 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 955 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
13P. Groß
26J. Ryerson
17C. Chukwuemeka
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
39C. Özkacar
6E. Martel
4T. Hübers
32K. Lund
8D. Huseinbašić
18Í. Jóhannesson
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
30M. Bülter
13S. El Mala
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
1.FC Köln · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game2.67 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 20 Jan 20241.FC Köln0–4Borussia Dortmund
- 19 Aug 2023Borussia Dortmund1–01.FC Köln
- 18 Mar 2023Borussia Dortmund6–11.FC Köln
- 1 Oct 20221.FC Köln3–2Borussia Dortmund
- 20 Mar 20221.FC Köln1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 30 Oct 2021Borussia Dortmund2–01.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.14 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.14 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 11.86 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 3.86 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 12.20 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 4.25
Red cards0.21league 0.22
Cards 5+46%league 43%
Fouls23.5league 22.6
Penalties0.38league 0.41
Home wins31%league 41%
Borussia Dortmund3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against4 · 1
- W26 Apr 25A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21
- W28 Jan 24H · VfL Bochum3–11
- W23 Oct 21A · Arminia Bielefeld3–10
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L20 Sep 25A · RB Leipzig1–31
- D28 Apr 24A · FSV Mainz 051–14
- L28 Oct 23A · RB Leipzig0–64
- D13 Aug 22A · RB Leipzig2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund7 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
1.FC Köln7 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
6
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
